000 AXPZ20 KNHC 230919 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC FRI OCT 23 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC MAJOR HURRICANE PATRICIA WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 105.1W 924 MB AT 0900 UTC OCT 23 MOVING NNW OR 340 DEG AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 880 MB. THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE PATRICIA IS UNPRECEDENTED IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC...WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVING RAPIDLY INCREASED TO 175 KT WITH GUSTS 215 KT. MAJOR HURRICANE PATRICIA MAY INTENSITY EVEN MORE THIS MORNING AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO...MAKING LANDFALL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST WITHIN 90 NM SE SEMICIRCLE OF THE EYE AND 60 NM NW SEMICIRCLE. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING IN BANDS AND CLUSTERS WITHIN 270 NM NE...270 NM SE...300 NM SW...AND 180 NW QUADRANTS. ALL PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION TONIGHT AS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MEXICAN COASTLINE THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION TO THE EXTREME WINDS...TREMENDOUS WAVES...COASTAL FLOODING AND INUNDATIONS WILL ACCOMPANY PATRICIA INLAND. THE MEXICAN STATES OF JALISCO...COLIMA... MICHOACAN AND GUERRERO ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY TO TORRENTIAL RAINFALL LEADING TO LIFE-THREATENING FLASHING FLOODING AND LAND SLIDES THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS RAINFALL COULD CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AFTER PATRICIA IS WELL INLAND. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FORECAST/PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC AND MIATCPEP5/WTPZ35 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A DISCONTINUOUS MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 9.5N84W TO 19N90W...WHERE IT REMAINS FRACTURED FROM PATRICIA...THEN RESUMES FROM 12N108W TO 10N125W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N128W 1012 MB...TO 10N135W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 85W AND 90W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 45 NM N AND 90 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 110W AND 120W. ...DISCUSSION... A WEAKENED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED WELL N OF THE AREA REACHES AS FAR SOUTH AS 20N. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE DEEP LOW PRES RELATED TO PATRICIA IS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH NW FLOW ALONG THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...AS NOTED IN RECENT SHIP OBSERVATIONS. SIMILARLY...AS PATRICIA SHIFTS NORTHWARD TOWARD CABO CORRIENTES LATER TODAY...THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRONG NW FLOW DOWN THE LENGTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 6 TO 8 FT MIXED WITH SW SWELL NEAR MOUTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT. A LARGE SWATH OF FRESH TO STRONG SW FLOW IS CONVERGING INTO PATRICIA...FROM ROUGHLY 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 100W AND 125W. CROSS- EQUATORIAL SW SWELL TO 9 FT WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH NORTH BETWEEN 100W AND 130W BY LATE TODAY TO COMBINE WITH SHORTER PERIOD SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT GENERATED BY THE FRESH TO STRONG SW FLOW. SW TO W SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE OLAF WELL W OF 140W IS GENERATING SEAS TO 9 FT N OF 12N W OF 137W. OLAF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD THEN NE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND CONTINUE TO SEND SW SWELL INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON THE LONG-TERM MOTION OF OLAF...BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FROM CPHC INDICATES OLAF CONTINUING TO MOVE NE OVER THE WEEKEND...AND CROSSING NW PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA MON AND TUE AS A WEAKENING TROPICAL STORM. EXPECT LARGE SWELL TO SWEEP INTO NW PART OF DISCUSSION AREA WITH AND AHEAD OF OLAF EARLY NEXT WEEK. $$ CHRISTENSEN