000 AXPZ20 KNHC 222212 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC THU OCT 22 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE PATRICIA WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 104.6W 953 MB AT 2100 UTC OCT 22 MOVING WNW OR 300 DEG AT 11 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT GUSTS 140 KT AND ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 953 MB BASED ON RECENT AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS. PATRICIA CONTINUES TO UNDERGO RAPID INTENSIFICATION...WITH A VERY CLEAR 10 NM WIDE EYE HAVING DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON. NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED WITHIN THE CONTINUOUS EYEWALL WITHIN 60 NM OF THE EYE....WHERE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES WERE -70 TO -82 DEG C...WHILE ELSEWHERE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING IN BANDS AND CLUSTERS WITHIN 180 NM NE...270 NM SE...360 NM SW...AND 300 NW QUADRANTS...WHERE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS WERE -80 TO -90 DEG C. BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS AND COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE...PATRICIA IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT AND COULD REACH CATEGORY 5 INTENSITY...AND THEN REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE FRIDAY AS IT MOVES NORTH THEN NORTHEASTWARD AND INLAND ACROSS MAINLAND MEXICO DURING THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING HOURS. ALL PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION TODAY AS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MEXICAN COASTLINE BY FRIDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION TO THE EXTREME WINDS...TREMENDOUS WAVES...COASTAL FLOODING AND INUNDATION THAT WILL ACCOMPANY PATRICIA INLAND ON FRIDAY...THE MEXICAN STATES OF JALISCO...COLIMA... MICHOACAN AND GUERRERO ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY TO TORRENTIAL RAINFALL LEADING TO LIFE-THREATENING FLASHING FLOODING AND LAND SLIDES STARTING TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS RAINFALL COULD CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AFTER PATRICIA IS WELL INLAND. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FORECAST/PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC AND MIATCPEP5/WTPZ35 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A DISCONTINUOUS MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N77W TO 09.5N84W TO 11N96W...WHERE IT REMAINS FRACTURED FROM PATRICIA...THEN RESUMES FROM 12.5N108W TO 10N124W TO 09N135W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 270 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 80W AND 96W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 150 NM N AND 300 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 110W AND 136W. ...DISCUSSION... A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS S AND SE INTO THE AREA W OF PATRICIA...N OF 14N AND W OF 108W...FROM A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 43N133W. MODERATE TO FRESH NE TRADES ARE FOUND SW OF THE RIDGE. A COLD FRONT N OF THE AREA WILL WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES 30N OVER THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH CENTER WILL MOVE N WHICH WILL ACT TO WEAKEN THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND DIMINISH WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 15N OUTSIDE THE INFLUENCE OF PATRICIA. SW TO W SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE OLAF WELL W OF 140W IS GENERATING 8-10 FT SEAS FROM 12N-25N W OF 137W. OLAF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD THEN NE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND CONTINUE TO SEND SW SWELL INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON THE LONG-TERM MOTION OF OLAF...BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FROM CPHC INDICATES OLAF CONTINUING TO MOVE NE OVER THE WEEKEND...AND CROSSING NW PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA MON AND TUE AS A WEAKENING TROPICAL STORM. EXPECT LARGE SWELL TO SWEEP INTO NW PART OF DISCUSSION AREA WITH AND AHEAD OF OLAF EARLY NEXT WEEK. $$ STRIPLING