000
AXPZ20 KNHC 211557
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC WED OCT 21 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.               

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 97.5W AT 1500 UTC 
MOVING W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 
45 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM NW 
SEMICIRCLE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY IN A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT PRIOR TO LANDFALL ON THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. 
HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING IS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO THE 
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS FROM PATRICIA. PLEASE SEE LATEST FORECAST 
AND PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC AND MIATCPEP5/ 
WTPZ35 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
           
DISCONTINUOUS MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N79W TO 11N93W... 
THEN CONTINUES FROM 12N100W TO 10N116W TO 08N136W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 79W AND 93W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
WITHIN 180 NM N AND 120 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 100W AND 116W.

...DISCUSSION... 

MOST DISTINCTIVE FEATURE OBSERVED IN INFRARED SATELLITE TODAY IS 
LARGE EXTENT OF ACTIVE CONVECTION...AS NOTED IN CONVERGENCE ZONE 
SECTION ABOVE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS BROADLY DIFFLUENT FLOW 
ALOFT FROM 06N-16N BETWEEN 95W-125W...WHICH IS ENHANCING DEEP 
CONVECTION ALL ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS...AS WELL AS IN THE 
VICINITY OF PATRICIA. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES UPPER LEVEL 
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION 
ALONG THE CONVERGENCE ZONE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THU.

WINDS AND SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE OLAF WELL W OF THE AREA 
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH W OF 130W. A NEW BATCH OF NW SWELL WILL 
MERGE WITH MIXED SWELL GENERATED BY OLAF OVER NW WATERS LATE THU 
AND FRI.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NW OF THE AREA EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS ROUGHLY 
N OF 22N W OF 122W. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS MODERATE TO FRESH 
TRADES N OF 15N W OF 125W. 

LEADING EDGE OF SW SWELL TRAIN WITH PERIODS 20-22 SEC WILL REACH 
THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS THU NIGHT. THE LONG PERIOD SWELL INCREASES 
POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS NEAR PORTS AND RISK FOR 
RIP CURRENTS. COMBINED SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 5-7 FT.
                                                    
$$ 
MUNDELL