000 AXPZ20 KNHC 200938 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC TUE OCT 20 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0645 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... MAJOR HURRICANE OLAF WAS CENTERED W OF THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 10.3N 140.4W AT 0900 UTC MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 938 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED WAS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER...WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED ELSEWHERE OVER FORECAST WATERS FROM 03N-16N W OF 132W. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...BUT OLAF IS FORECAST TO MOVE NW AWAY FROM THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE OVER WESTERN WATERS THIS EVENING. PLEASE SEE LATEST FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HFOTCMCP5/WTPA25 PFHO FOR MORE DETAILS ON OLAF. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTERED SE OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC NEAR 13N94W IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER SCALE CENTRAL AMERICAN GYRE. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FUNNELING THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC INTO THE W SIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WITH SEAS IN THE 10 TO 15 FT RANGE AS SEEN BY THE 0318 UTC ASCAT-B PASS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTRAL AMERICAN GYRE IS FINALLY STARTING TO SLOWLY BREAK DOWN. AS THE BREAKDOWN OF THE GYRE CONTINUES OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...ENERGY WILL BE ABLE TO CONSOLIDATE AROUND THE LOW WHICH WILL ENABLE THE LOW TO FURTHER INTENSIFY. THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY THAT THE LOW WILL DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO WILL MAINTAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVE WEATHER OVER THIS AREA REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. THIS WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING AND DANGEROUS MUDSLIDES OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AS WELL AS SOUTHERN MEXICO. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM LOW PRES NEAR 13N94W 1007 MB TO 10N97W TO 09N112W TO 07N126W TO 08N132W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 210 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 103W- 124W AS WELL AS WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 110W-117W. ...DISCUSSION... A 1027 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 35N138W EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH 27N130W TO THE ISLAS REVILLAGIGEDO. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE SW UNITED STATES IS PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WINDS IS PROPAGATING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN WATERS...WITH SEAS IN THE 7-9 FT RANGE N OF 27N BETWEEN 116W-126W. THE WINDS TO THE N OF THE AREA WILL DIMINISH BY TONIGHT AND THE SWELL AT OR ABOVE 8 FT WILL SUBSIDE OVER FORECAST WATERS BY WED AFTERNOON. GAP WINDS... GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH IS SWEEPING THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING. THE 0504 UTC ASCAT PASS CAPTURED SW TO W WINDS TO 30 KT BLOWING THROUGH THE MAJOR MOUNTAIN PASSES FROM 27N-31N ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THESE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH PUSHES E OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. $$ SCHAUER