000 AXPZ20 KNHC 160917 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC FRI OCT 16 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0730 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E WAS CENTERED NEAR 10.1N 123.5W AT 0900 UTC MOVING WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED WAS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 120 NM NW SEMICIRCLE...WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM SE SEMICIRCLE AND 270 NM NW SEMICIRCLE. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A TROPICAL STORM BY THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES WESTWARD. PLEASE SEE LATEST FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...GALE FORCE N-NE WINDS ARE FUNNELING ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 13 FT. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND NE MEXICO AND TROPICAL WAVES BOTH E AND W OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL ALLOW MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. EXPECT MAX SEAS OF 12 TO 15 FT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS GAP WIND EVENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS WAS ANALYZED ALONG 101W FROM 07N TO 15N. THE WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING W AROUND 10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS FROM 04N-09N BETWEEN 97W-105W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 09N79W TO 11N90W TO 08N105W TO 09N113W. THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 07N132W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS FROM 07N-12N BETWEEN 84W-88W WITH NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION N OF 12N E OF 94W. ...DISCUSSION... 1018 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 25N135W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE THROUGH 22N127W TO 19N110W. TO THE N OF THE RIDGE AXIS...A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N122W TO A WEAKENING LOW PRES SYSTEM NEAR 28N125W 1014 MB TO 28N128W. WINDS ARE LIGHT NEAR THE LOW WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE TODAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE N AND THE ITCZ AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN- E TO THE S IS DRIVING MAINLY MODERATE TRADE WINDS...WITH 20 TO 25 KT WINDS WITHIN 150 NM N OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E. A COLD FRONT OVER FAR NW WATERS WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO 30N136W TO 26N140W BY THIS EVENING. 8 FT SEAS IN NW SWELL BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER NW WATERS AT THIS TIME AND SHOULD REACH AS HIGH AS 10 FT BY SAT MORNING THEN SUBSIDE AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE SE. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER N CENTRAL WATERS LATE SAT...USHERING IN A STRONGER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER N WATERS AND EXPANDING THE AREA OF 20-33 KT WINDS AROUND TROPICAL CYCLONE NINETEEN-E. CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE 7-9 FT RANGE S OF 06N BETWEEN 93W AND 129W THROUGH SAT MORNING. THIS SWELL WILL SUBSIDE...WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT EXPECTED BY SUN MORNING. DESPITE THE SUBSIDING SEAS...A NEW BATCH OF SW SWELL WITH PERIODS IN THE 19-21 SECOND RANGE...WILL REACH THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS ON SAT MORNING AND THE PACIFIC COAST S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ON SUN MORNING. THIS LONG-PERIOD SWELL COULD MAKE FOR DANGEROUS CONDITIONS ENTERING AND EXITING PORTS AND WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS. A TROPICAL WAVE LIES JUST E OF THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL COSTA RICA/NICARAGUA BORDER THROUGH EASTERN HONDURAS. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WAS DESCRIBED IN THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION. THE WAVE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE AS PACIFIC MOISTURE POOLS NEAR IT TODAY...AND IT TRACKS W UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS. AN AREA OF FRESH SW WINDS IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ON THE SE SIDE OF THE WAVE OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH 7-9 FT SEAS EXPECTED TO COINCIDE WITH THESE WINDS. $$ SCHAUER