000
AXPZ20 KNHC 152110
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC THU OCT 15 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.               

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E CENTERED NEAR 10.1N 120.9W AT 
2100 UTC MOVING WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM 
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 
KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM NW SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED ELSEWHERE FROM FROM 04N TO 07N 
BETWEEN 120W AND 128W. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO 
INTENSIFY TO A TROPICAL STORM THIS EVENING...AND CONTINUE TO 
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES WEST NORTHWESTWARD. PLEASE SEE 
LATEST FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 
NINETEEN-E. 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...GALE FORCE N-NE WINDS ARE FUNNELING ACROSS 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 9 TO 13 FT. A 
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST ALLOWING MINIMAL GALE FORCE 
WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. EXPECT MAX 
SEAS OF 12 TO 15 FT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WIND EVENT TONIGHT 
INTO FRI MORNING.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                             

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS NEAR 98W FROM 08N TO 16N. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 30 NM OF WAVE AXIS. 
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N86W TO 11N90W TO 08N94W TO 
07N109W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM S 
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 95W AND 106W.

...DISCUSSION... 

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1018 MB CENTERED NEAR 25N135W EXTENDS A RIDGE 
SE TO NEAR 16N111W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE IS 
HELPING TO DRIVE AN AREA OF 20 TO 30 KT WINDS WITHIN 180 NM N OF 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E. OTHERWISE A WEAK PRESSURE 
PATTERN PERSISTS OVER THE AREA. 

CROSS EQUATORIAL SE AND SW SWELL IS PROPAGATING ACROSS THE 
SOUTHERN WATERS S OF 05N BETWEEN 95W AND 120W. THE SWELLS WILL 
SLOWLY SUBSIDE AND AREAL COVERAGE OF SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER WILL 
SHRINK TO COVER THE AREA S OF 02N BETWEEN 110W AND 120W. 

LOOKING AHEAD...A COMPLEX INTERACTION BETWEEN A TROPICAL 
WAVE...GALE FORCE GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...AND THE 
MONSOON TROUGH WILL HELP GENERATE A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA BY 
THIS WEEKEND. THIS AREA WILL BE ONE TO WATCH WITH INTEREST AS 
GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS LOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP 
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. PLEAS SEE THE LATEST EASTERN NORTH 
PACIFIC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATWOEP/ABPZ20 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR 
TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS. 

$$ 
AL