000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150954
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC THU OCT 15 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0830 UTC.               

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E WAS CENTERED NEAR 10.2N 119.2W AT 
0900 UTC MOVING WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM 
CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 30 KT 
GUSTING TO 40 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS 
NOTED WITHIN 180 NM OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS 
NOTED ELSEWHERE FROM FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 109W AND 114W. THE 
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO TROPICAL STORM 
STRENGTH LATER THIS MORNING...AND CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY 
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES WEST NORTHWESTWARD. PLEASE SEE LATEST 
FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E. 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN A TROPICAL WAVE 
PASSING ACROSS THE AREA AND HIGHER PRESSURE OVER NE MEXICO IS 
DRIVING NEAR GALE FORCE N-NE WINDS THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS ARE REACHING MINIMAL GALE FORCE 
INTO THE GULF...WITH SEAS BUILDING OF 10 TO 15 FT. THE TIGHT 
GRADIENT WILL PERSIST ALLOWING MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS TO 
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. EXPECT MAX SEAS OF 
12 TO 15 FT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WIND EVENT TONIGHT INTO FRI 
MORNING.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                             

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS NEAR 97W FROM 07N TO 14N. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 30 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. A MID LEVEL 
CIRCULATION IS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AT THE SOUTH END OF 
THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 07.5N95W. NOTING 
WIND OBSERVATIONS FROM A TOGA BUOY THAT HAPPENS TO BE AT THIS 
LOCATION...IT IS NOT CLEAR THAT A SURFACE LOW HAS FORMED AT THIS 
TIME. 
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 08N95W TO 10N110W. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH. 

...DISCUSSION... 

N OF 15N E OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...TROUGHING 
OVER THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS 
SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF 
BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR BETWEEN CABO SAN LAZARO AND PUNTA 
EUGENIA...AS NOTED BY PAIR OF SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND A 05 UTC 
ASCAT SATELLITE PASS. GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS WERE 
NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA INCLUDING THE 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA. SEAS ARE 5 TO 6 FT IN PACIFIC WATERS. THE 
PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS THROUGH TODAY...ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH 
AT LITTLE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED THROUGH THE 
WEEKEND.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...A SHARP UPPER LOW EXTENDING THROUGH 
TEHUANTEPEC YESTERDAY HAS BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED...ALLOWING AREAS 
OF CONVECTION THAT HAD BEEN FLARING ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH TO 
DIMINISH. NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE-RELATED CONVECTION PERSIST ALONG 
THE COAST FROM 07N TO 14N. LONG PERIOD SW SWELL WITH WAVE 
HEIGHTS TO 9 FT IS NOTED IN RECENT ALTIMETER DATA GENERALLY S OF 
05N W OF 90W. MODERATE SW FLOW PERSISTS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. 
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE FRESH SW FLOW WITH THE  
DEVELOPMENT OF BROAD BUT WEAK LOW PRES SW OF GUATEMALA THIS 
WEEKEND. IT IS PLAUSIBLE THE A SURFACE LOW IS TRYING TO FORM  
SUPPORTED BY NE GAP WIND FLOW OUT OF TEHUANTEPEC AND THE PASSAGE 
OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH. THE 
AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE MAY 
BE AN EARLY INDICATION. GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS BY 
FRI.SEAS IN THE BAND OF FRESH SW FLOW S OF THE LOW PRES COULD 9 
FT WITH ASSISTANCE FROM THE COMPONENT OF SW FLOW.

ELSEWHERE...STATIONARY AND WEAK 1014 MB LOW PRES NEAR 29N125W 
WILL DISSIPATE TODAY AS RIDGING RECLAIMS ITS POSITIONED  OVER THE 
AREA...CENTERED NEAR 26N135W. A COLD FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY 
SCATTERED MODERATE THUNDERSTORMS...WILL MOVE INTO THE NW PORTION 
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA FRI THEN STALL FROM 32N127W TO 26N140W BY 
LATE FRI AND BECOME DIFFUSE SAT. NW SWELL WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT 
WITH SEAS 8 TO 9 FT FRI AND SAT...SPREADING AS FAR EAST AS 130W 
BY SUN. FARTHER SOUTH...GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW WEST 
OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E...SOUTH OF WEAK HIGH PRES. THE 
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT AND WESTWARD 
ADVANCEMENT OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION...EXPECTED TO REACH 
HURRICANE STRENGTH NEAR 10N128W BY 48 HOURS.

$$ 
CHRISTENSEN