000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150235
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC THU OCT 15 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC.               

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

RECENTLY DEVELOPED TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E WAS CENTERED 
NEAR 9.9N 117.8W AT 0300 UTC MOVING WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 16 
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 30 KT GUSTING TO 40 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE 
TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED ELSEWHERE FROM 05N 
TO 12N BETWEEN 116W AND 121W. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY FORECAST 
TO INTENSIFY TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THU MORNING...AND 
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES WEST NORTHWESTWARD. 
PLEASE SEE LATEST FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 
NINETEEN-E. 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN A TROPICAL WAVE 
PASSING ACROSS THE AREA AND HIGHER PRESSURE OVER NE MEXICO IS 
DRIVING NEAR GALE FORCE N-NE WINDS THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REACH MINIMAL 
GALE FORCE LATER TONIGHT WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 11-12 FT. THE 
TIGHT GRADIENT WILL PERSIST ALLOWING MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS TO 
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. EXPECT MAX SEAS OF 
12-13 FT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WIND EVENT THU NIGHT INTO FRI 
MORNING.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                             

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS LIES NEAR 96W FROM 07N TO 15N. ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. 
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 07N95W TO 09N109W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM S OF 
THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 85W AND 89W. 

...DISCUSSION... 

A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN PREVAILS OVER THE W WATERS AS A BROAD 
SURFACE TROUGH DOMINATES THE NORTHERN WATERS. THIS TROUGH WILL 
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND HIGH 
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. A COLD 
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ON 
FRI AND EXTEND FROM 30N134W TO 26N140W BY FRI EVENING. THE FRONT 
WILL STALL FROM 30N130W TO 25N140W BY FRI NIGHT AND BECOME 
DIFFUSE SAT. NW SWELL WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT WITH SEAS 8 TO 9 FT 
FRI AND SAT...SPREADING AS FAR EAST AS 130W BY SUN.

LOOKING AHEAD...WHILE THE TROPICAL WAVE DISCUSSED ABOVE...IN THE 
VICINITY OF 96W...WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE WESTWARD...THE GALE 
FORCE GAP WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL INTERACT 
WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH AND HELP TO DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW OVER 
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS LOW 
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS 
WILL BE AN INTERESTING AREA TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT WEEK. 

$$ 
AL