000 AXPZ20 KNHC 132118 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC TUE OCT 13 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2000 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 91W N OF 08N TO CENTRAL GUATEMALA. THE WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING W AROUND 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS FOUND MAINLY W OF THE WAVE FROM 05N-10N BETWEEN 89W-97W. A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED FROM 17N110W TO 1008 MB LOW PRES NEAR 10N110W. THE WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING W AROUND 10 KT OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS FROM 08N-14N BETWEEN 110W-114N AND FROM 05N-12N BETWEEN 114W-117W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY THE WEEKEND. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATWOEP/ABPZ20 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 09N78W TO 08N82W TO 10N90W TO 08N96W TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N110W 1008 MB TO 09N115W TO 12N127W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS S OF THE AXIS TO 03N E OF 86W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 360 NM S OF THE AXIS W OF 134W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LOW OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA REFLECTS A TROUGH AT THE SURFACE FROM 31N122W TO 1011 MB LOW PRES NEAR 27N124W TO 23N126W. THE MOISTURE FEED FROM THE TROPICS HAS BEEN CUT OFF TO THE LOW...AND ONLY SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH. A SOUTHWESTERLY JET ON THE SE SIDE OF THE LOW CONTINUES TO PUMP TROPICAL MOISTURE TOWARD THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ALONG A LINE FROM 25N11W TO 12N127W. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES N-NE. MEANWHILE...THE PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WANE AND SHIFT W AWAY FROM THE COAST AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND PULLS AWAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO JOG NW THROUGH EARLY WED THEN WEAKEN QUICKLY AS IT IS FORCED NE IN TANDEM WITH THE UPPER LOW. ONLY A GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE WAS FOUND NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH. A MODERATE TO FRESH N-NW BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE W COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THU AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM THE W...INCREASING THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES AND TROUGHING OVER NW MEXICO. SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 8 FT OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR IN MIXED SW AND NW SWELL THU AFTERNOON. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 1024 MB HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA NEAR 39N134W THROUGH 28N140W. MAINLY MODERATE E-NE WINDS WERE FOUND S AND E OF THE RIDGE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST WEAKEN AND OOZE SOUTHWARD AND SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND SHIFTS N-NE. TRADE WINDS WILL SHIFT S AS THE RIDGING BECOMES MORE ZONAL. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 8 FT. SW SWELL HAS BROUGHT 7-9 FT SEAS TO MUCH OF THE AREA S OF 04N W OF 93W. CONDITIONS SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE HERE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. GAP WINDS... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WINDS AND SEAS HAVE TEMPORARILY DIMINISHED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 91W WILL PASS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WED. THE INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS WAVE AND HIGHER PRESSURE OVER NE MEXICO WILL DRIVE STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE N-NE WINDS THROUGH CHIVELA PASS WED MORNING. WINDS WILL ABATE SLIGHTLY BY AFTERNOON AFTER THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW WANES. MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY EARLY THU MORNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THU AFTERNOON...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 12 FT. $$ SCHAUER