000 AXPZ20 KNHC 130241 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC TUE OCT 13 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0100 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED FROM 16N106W TO 1008 MB LOW PRES NEAR 10N106W. THE WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING W AT 10-15 KT OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS FROM 05N-13N BETWEEN 106W-112W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME PROGRESSIVELY MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AFTER MIDWEEK. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATWOEP/ABPZ20 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 10N84W TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N106W 1008 MB TO 10N112W...THEN CONTINUES FROM 19N113W TO 14N128W TO 11N130W TO 10N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 300 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 82W-95W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS S OF THE AXIS TO 07N BETWEEN 125W-138W. ...DISCUSSION... A VAST UPPER LOW OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA REFLECTS A TROUGH AT THE SURFACE FROM 30N119W TO 22N123W. MOISTURE HAS WRAPPED AROUND THE N SIDE OF THE LOW IN THE MID-LEVELS TOWARD THE SURFACE TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 210 NM W OF THE TROUGH FROM 26N-30N. LIGHTNING IMAGERY SHOWS RECENT STRIKES IN THIS AREA. THE LOW CONTINUES TO PUMP TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES N-NW. MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS AND 7-9 FT SEAS WERE BETWEEN THE SURFACE TROUGH AND THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AS SEEN BY SHIP V7ZG7 NEAR 27N117W AT 0000 UTC AND AN ALTIMETER PASS AT 2200 UTC. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH FURTHER THROUGH TUE. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT BY TUE MORNING AS THE TROUGH TRACKS W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS N OF THE AREA FROM 1022 MB HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA NEAR 38N133W THROUGH 33N140W. MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS WERE FOUND SE OF THE RIDGE TO 20N125W AND FROM 10N-20N W OF 130W. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE DISPLACED NORTHWARD AS THE VAST UPPER LOW OFF THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PACIFIC COAST MOVES N-NW. THE DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL WEAKEN AS A RESULT TUE INTO WED...WITH TRADE WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH. CURRENTLY...NW SWELL TO 8 FT LIES ACROSS CENTRAL WATERS N OF 24N UNDER THE NE WINDS. THIS SWELL IS FORECAST TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT BY TUE AFTERNOON. A BATCH OF SW SWELL WITH PERIODS IN THE 18-20 SECOND RANGE HAS PUSHED ASHORE ON THE PACIFIC COAST OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THIS SWELL IS LIKELY MAKING FOR HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ENTERING AND EXITING PORTS AND AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR RIP CURRENTS. SEAS ALONG THE COAST HERE ARE GENERALLY IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE. THIS SWELL WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. GAP WINDS... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WINDS AND SEAS HAVE TEMPORARILY DIMINISHED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. A TROPICAL WAVE...CURRENTLY STRETCHED FROM NORTHERN COSTA RICA THROUGH EASTERN HONDURAS...WILL PASS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATER IN THE WEEK. THE INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS WAVE AND HIGHER PRESSURE OVER NE MEXICO WILL DRIVE STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE N-NE WINDS THROUGH CHIVELA PASS WED MORNING THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WED EVENING. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO AS HIGH AS 11 FT DURING THIS TIME. $$ SCHAUER