000 AXPZ20 KNHC 120245 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC MON OCT 12 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0100 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED FROM 15N101W TO LOW PRES NEAR 08N102W 1008 MB. THE WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING W AT 10 KT OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 07N- 13N BETWEEN 100W-110W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY FORM BY LATE THIS WEEK. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATWOEP/ABPZ20 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 08N78W TO 09N83W TO LOW PRES NEAR 08N102W TO 11N110W...THEN CONTINUES FROM 14N118W TO 10N129W TO 11N139W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST BETWEEN 81W-88W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 128W-131W AS WELL AS FROM 06N-09N BETWEEN 136W- 139W. ...DISCUSSION... A VAST UPPER LOW OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA HAS REFLECTED TWO TROUGHS AT THE SURFACE. THE EASTERN TROUGH WAS ANALYZED FROM 27N116W TO LOW PRES NEAR 22N114W 1009 MB. A SLUG OF TROPICAL MOISTURE HAS MOVED NORTHWARD E OF THE TROUGH TO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 25N107W TO 14N113W. THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE MOISTURE LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PENINSULA AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. FRESH TO STRONG S-SE WINDS AND SEAS TO 11 FT WERE BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO A FRESH BREEZE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND THE TROUGH SHOULD DISSIPATE LATE MON. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT BY MON EVENING. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE W-NW OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE WESTERN SURFACE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED FROM 28N120W TO 23N121W...CLOSER TO THE DEEP-LAYERED CENTER. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO TRACK W-NW WITH THE UPPER LOW. THE CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEAR THE TROUGH AS THE TROPICAL MOISTURE WRAPS INTO THE DEEP-LAYERED CENTER. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA E OF THIS SURFACE TROUGH STARTING MON. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 1020 MB HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA NEAR 39N129W THROUGH 1019 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 31N140W. MODERATE TO FRESH NE TRADE WINDS WERE FOUND SE OF THE RIDGE TO 12N BETWEEN 123W AND 137W. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE DISPLACED NORTHWARD AS THE VAST UPPER LOW OFF THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PACIFIC COAST CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD. THE DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL WEAKEN AS A RESULT MON INTO TUE...WITH TRADE WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY...NW SWELL TO 8 FT LIES ACROSS THESE WATERS N OF 21N UNDER THE TRADES. THIS SWELL IS FORECAST TO SHIFT INTO THE N CENTRAL WATERS MON AND SUBSIDE BY TUE AFTERNOON. TO THE SW...AN AREA OF SEAS TO 9 FT IN MIXED SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE NORA W OF THE AREA WAS FROM 13N TO 23N W OF 137W. THESE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH MON EVENING. A BATCH OF SW SWELL WITH PERIODS IN THE 19-22 SECOND RANGE HAS MOVED ONTO THE COAST OF ECUADOR...COLOMBIA...AND CENTRAL AMERICA S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO AS WELL AS ONTO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. SEAS ALONG THE COAST HERE WERE GENERALLY IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SWELL WILL REACH THE MOUTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA MAINLY S OF MAZATLAN AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE PACIFIC COAST MON MORNING. THIS SWELL COULD MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ENTERING AND EXITING PORTS AND INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR RIP CURRENTS. GAP WINDS... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...FRESH TO STRONG N-NE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MON MORNING UNDER A SLACKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGING OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO AND THE AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE TO THE SW. SEAS WILL REACH AS HIGH AS 9 FT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 20-25 KT AND 8 FT...RESPECTIVELY...BY MON AFTERNOON AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. $$ SCHAUER