000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110237
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC SUN OCT 11 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC.               
 
...SPECIAL FEATURES... 
                                 
TROPICAL STORM NORA WAS CENTERED NEAR 11.7N 139.9W AT 0300 UTC 
OCT 11 MOVING W OR 280 DEG AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE WAS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 45 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 55 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED 
WITHIN 75 NM OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
WAS NOTED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM NW SEMICIRCLE. THE CENTER OF 
NORA WILL SHIFT W OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. AS NORA CONTINUES TO 
MOVE FURTHER FROM THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF 
DAYS...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO 
FALL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THIS AREA BY MON NIGHT. SEE 
THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE ON NORA.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                             

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS NEAR 15N97W TO LOW PRES NEAR 08N98W TO 
05N99W...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED 
FROM 06N TO 14N BETWEEN 95W AND 102W. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY 
HAS A LOW CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 48 
HOURS. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATWOEP/ABPZ20 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N77W TO 09N90W TO LOW PRES 
NEAR 08N98W TO 14N118W TO 12N132W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 81W 
AND 85W. 

...DISCUSSION... 

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 22N116W HAS HELPED TO GENERATE 
A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 22N113W TO 14N115W. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS 
ARE NOTED E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 15N TO 21N. ACTIVE 
CONVECTION DRIVEN BY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW EXTENDS OVER MUCH OF 
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AS WELL AS OVER THE WATERS FROM 
15N TO 17N BETWEEN 108W AND 114W. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SHIFT 
NW OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH FOLLOWING 
THE SUPPORT AND FORCING OF THE UPPER LOW WESTWARD. THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT WILL START TO WEAKEN SUN INTO MON AND WINDS ASSOCIATED 
TO THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS MON. 

SW SWELLS WITH PERIODS AT OR ABOVE 20 SECONDS WILL REACH THE 
COAST OF ECUADOR...COLOMBIA...AND CENTRAL AMERICA S OF CABO 
CORRIENTES MEXICO SUN. SEAS ALONG THE COAST HERE SHOULD 
GENERALLY BE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SWELL 
WILL REACH THE MOUTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND THE BAJA 
CALIFORNIA NORTE PACIFIC COAST MON MORNING. THIS SWELL COULD 
MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ENTERING AND EXITING PORTS AND 
INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR RIP CURRENTS.

GAP WINDS...                                                     
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...GAP WINDS OF 20-30 KT ARE BEING DRIVEN BY 
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN MEXICO 
AND A TROPICAL WAVE PROPAGATING S OF THE AREA. WINDS AND SEAS 
WILL START TO DECREASE SUN AS THE WAVE MOVES FURTHER FROM THE 
AREA. 

$$
AL