000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100957
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC SAT OCT 10 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0830 UTC.               
 
...SPECIAL FEATURES... 
                                 
TROPICAL STORM NORA WAS CENTERED NEAR 11.6N 136.5W AT 0900 UTC 
OCT 10 MOVING WNW OR 285 DEG AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE WAS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 35 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 45 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED 
WITHIN 150 NM NW AND 90 NM SE SEMICIRCLES. NORA IS FORECAST TO 
INTENSIFY TO HURRICANE STRENGTH SUN AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS W OF 
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. SEE THE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                             

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS LIES NEAR 94W/95W N OF 08N. LITTLE 
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE...ALTHOUGH A LARGE LINE 
OF CONVECTION HAS EMERGED OFF THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST AND IS 
SHIFTING TOWARD THE TROPICAL WAVE. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS 
HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 08N95W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO LOW PRES NEAR 08N95W 
1009M MB TO 07N97W TO 11N110W...THEN CONTINUES FROM LOW PRES 
NEAR 12N115W 1009 MB TO 11N130W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 95W AND 
105W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 115W AND 122W.

...DISCUSSION... 

N OF 15N E OF 120W...AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF 
BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR NEAR 24N115W. THIS HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR 
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN 
AND CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA AND INTO NW MAINLAND MEXICO. A TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED 
FROM OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SOUTHWARD TO  SURFACE LOW 
PRES ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 12N115W. THE LOW PRES WILL 
GRADUALLY FOLLOW THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES NORTH 
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW WILL WEAKEN SUNDAY AS IT PASSES 
NORTH OF CLARION ISLAND...BUT THERE WILL BE A TIGHT ENOUGH 
GRADIENT TO THE EAST OF THE LOW PRES AND ITS ATTENDANT TROUGH TO 
THE NORTH TO SUPPORT 20 TO 25 KT SE WINDS OFF THE COAST OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA SUR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH SEA TO 9 FT. THE LOW 
DISSIPATES BY LATE SUNDAY...AND HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE 
REGION IN ITS WAKE ALLOWING GENERALLY MODERATE NW WINDS OVER THE 
REGION THROUGH MID WEEK.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...GAP WINDS ARE LIKELY STARTING TO SURGE 
THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...REACHING 20-30 KT TONIGHT...AS 
A TROPICAL WAVE PROPAGATING TO THE OF THE AREA HELPS INDUCE A 
GAP WIND EVENT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 11 FT OVER THE WEEKEND.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS 
EMERGED OFF THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST AND NOW REACHES FROM 
13N93W TO 10N85W. THIS WILL DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING. LOW 
PRES ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 94W/95W WILL SHIFT 
WESTWARD N OF 08N THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. 

ELSEWHERE...A SET OF NW SWELLS IS APPROACHING FROM THE N CENTRAL 
PACIFIC AND WILL ENTER THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA 
THIS MORNING. THIS SWELL WILL PROPAGATE SE OVER THE WATERS AND 
BY SUN AFTERNOON SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT WILL COVER THE AREA NW 
OF A LINE FROM 30N123W TO 17N140W. 

A SET OF SW SWELL WITH PERIODS AT OR ABOVE 20 SECONDS WILL REACH 
THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS OVERNIGHT...MOVE ONTO THE COAST OF 
ECUADOR...COLOMBIA... AND CENTRAL AMERICA S OF CABO CORRIENTES 
MEXICO SUN MORNING. SEAS ALONG THE COAST SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN 
THE 4-6 FT RANGE. THE LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL BRING HAZARDOUS 
CONDITIONS WHILE ENTERING AND EXITING PORTS...AND INCREASE THE 
CHANCE FOR RIP CURRENTS. 

$$
CHRISTENSEN