000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090232
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC FRI OCT 09 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC.               
 
...SPECIAL FEATURES... 
                                 
A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED FROM 16N128W TO LOW PRES NEAR 
10N129W 1009 MB TO 04N129W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 05N TO 14N BETWEEN 125W AND 135W. THE 
LOW IS CURRENTLY DIRECTLY SOUTH OF A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER. THIS 
HAS HELPED INCREASE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE TO 25 KT. 
WINDS AROUND THE LOW ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO GALE FORCE BY 
SAT MORNING AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES ON A WESTWARD TRACK. 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR 
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...AND THE SYSTEM 
CURRENTLY HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE BEFORE IT SHIFTS W OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT. SEE LATEST NHC 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATWOEP/ABPZ20 
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 09N84W TO 06N97W TO 
08N106W TO 08N110W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS 
NOTED WITHIN 210 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 83W AND 89W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 
120 NM N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 90W AND 110W.  

...DISCUSSION... 

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1020 MB CENTERED NEAR 30N128W EXTENDS A RIDGE 
SW TO NEAR 24N136W AND SE TO NEAR 20N111W. POST TROPICAL OHO 
CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY MOVE NNE AND FURTHER FROM THE AREA AND WINDS 
ASSOCIATED TO THE FEATURE HAVE DIMINISHED TO 20 KT OR LESS OVER 
FORECAST WATERS. SEAS OVER THE FAR NW WATERS ARE SUBSIDING BUT 
STILL CURRENTLY REACHING NEAR 15 FT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO 
SUBSIDE OVER THE FAR NW WATERS AND FALL BELOW 8 FT BY FRI NIGHT. 

SW SWELLS WITH SEAS TO 8 FT ARE COVERING THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS 
FROM 01N TO 06N BETWEEN 93W AND 116W. SEAS WILL SLOWLY 
SUBSIDE...FALLING BELOW 8 FT BY FRI AFTERNOON. A NEW SET OF SW 
SWELL WITH PERIODS AT OR ABOVE 20 SECONDS WILL REACH THE 
GALAPAGOS ISLANDS FRI NIGHT AND APPROACH THE COAST OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA BY SAT NIGHT. 

GAP WINDS...                                                     
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A PULSE OF FRESH N WINDS IS EXPECTED FRI 
MORNING...BUILDING SEAS TO 8 FT. A STRONGER SURGE OF 20-30 KT 
WINDS WILL BEGIN SAT MORNING AS TROUGHING BUILDS S OF 
TEHUANTEPEC AND RIDGING BUILDS OVER NE MEXICO. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...PULSES OF FRESH NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO 
INCREASE SEAS TO 8 FT FRI AND SAT MORNING IN MIXED NE AND SW 
SWELL. 

$$
AL