000 AXPZ20 KNHC 071604 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC WED OCT 07 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH A 1008 MB CENTER LOCATED NEAR 8.9N117.9W IS GENERATING SHOWERS AND TSTMS ABOUT 1042 NM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM 05N TO 15N BETWEEN 116W AND 124W. THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR IT TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY THE WEEKEND WHILE IT MOVES WNW AT ABOUT 13 KT. WINDS WITHIN 205 NM IN NE QUADRANT OF THE LOW ARE UP TO 20 KT WITH SEAS TO 8 FT IN SW SWELL. WINDS IN THE N SEMICIRCLE ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AT LEAST 30 KT WITHIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH SEAS REACHING 11 FT. CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH 48 HOURS IS MEDIUM AND HIGH THROUGH 5 DAYS. SEE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATWOEP/ABPZ20 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W TO 08N84W TO 08N106W TO A 1008 MB LOW PRES NEAR 8.9N117.9W...WHERE IT TERMINATES. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF THE EPAC COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 2N TO 6N E OF 80W. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 80W AND 86W...FROM 07N TO 12N BETWEEN 95W AND 106W AND FROM 04N TO 09N BETWEEN 102W AND 122W. ...DISCUSSION... TROPICAL CYCLONE OHO WAS LOCATED ROUGHLY 448 NM E OF HILO HAWAII ON THE BIG ISLAND AT 0900 UTC...MOVING NNE AT 25 KT. OHO WILL CONTINUE TO VEER NNE AND ACCELERATE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...AND PASS JUST NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS EVENING THROUGH THU MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 33 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA W OF A LINE FROM 24N140W TO 30N135W TONIGHT THEN SHIFT NORTHWARD THU. HURRICANE SWELL AND WIND GENERATED WAVES WILL RAISE SEAS 8 TO 22 FT ACROSS THESE NW PORTIONS LATE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING. LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SQUALLS SHOULD ALSO BE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME AS OHO PASSES NW OF THE AREA. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A FRONTAL TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE GULF EXTENDING FROM 31N114W TO 27N111W. NW WINDS OF 10-15 KT ARE W OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO MAINLAND MEXICO LATE TONIGHT WITH THESE WINDS PREVAILING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...A 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH LOCATED N OF AREA NEAR 36N126W EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE N WATERS TO 24N...BETWEEN HURRICANE OHO W OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION AND BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A 1010 MB LOW PRES LOCATED NEAR 21N124W IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF NE TO E WINDS OF 20 KT OR LESS WITHIN 210 NM NW SEMICIRCLE...WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH TONIGHT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT. THE HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO MEANDER ABOUT THE GENERAL AREA OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE HIGH MENTIONED ABOVE HAS ALSO BROUGHT ABOUT A RETURN TO N-NW WIND FLOW TO THE PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. AS OHO MOVES NNE OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS...THE RIDGE WILL BE SQUEEZED AND ATTEMPT TO BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD...PUSHING A FRONTAL TROUGH SSE AND JUST BEYOND CABO SAN LUCAS...AND FRESHEN THE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OF BAJA TO 15-20 KT...WITH POCKETS OF 20 KT WINDS DEVELOPING EACH LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING UNDER TYPICAL DIURNAL INFLUENCE. THIS WILL INCREASE SEAS TO THE 5-6 FT RANGE. GAP WINDS... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN A RIDGE ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH. THIS IS SUPPORTING A PLUME OF FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TO 30 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EXTENDING SW TO NEAR 13.5N96W THIS MORNING WITH SEAS TO 11 FT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON...SUBSIDING BELOW 20 KT AND 8 FT THU AFTERNOON. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE NW CARIB FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS COMBINED WITH LOWER PRESSURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH HAS BROUGHT ABOUT A RETURN TO OFFSHORE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COASTAL WATERS N OF 10N. NIGHT TIME WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND ADJACENT AREA ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK AROUND 20 KT DURING THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS AND RELAX TO 10- 15 KT DURING THE DAY. CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL DOMINATES MOST OF THE FORECAST WATERS E OF 118W GENERATING AN AREA OF 8-12 FT SEAS EXCEPT N OF 4.6S E OF 98W AND S OF 6.5S W OF 101W. THE CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE S CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH 48 HOURS AS TWO NEW PULSES OF MODERATE SIZED SWELL CROSS THE EQUATOR...ONE THIS MORNING...AND A SECOND THU NIGHT. $$ NR