000 AXPZ20 KNHC 070238 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC WED OCT 07 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0215 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 09N92W TO 11N105W TO A 1008 MB LOW PRES NEAR 08N114W THEN RESUMES AT 11N128W TO 08N135W TO BEYOND 09N140W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION N OF 06N BETWEEN 78W AND 83W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF PANAMA. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 05N TO 07N BETWEEN 90W AND 100W. ...DISCUSSION... TROPICAL CYCLONE OHO...CURRENTLY LOCATED WELL E-SE OF HAWAII IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH STEADILY INCREASING FORWARD SPEED THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...OHO WILL REMAIN W OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST REGION ON WED. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INCREASING WINDS OF 20-25 KT AND BUILDING SEAS OF 8-11 FT W OF LINE FROM 30N136W TO 26M137W TO 22N140W BY WED EVENING. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO FURTHER INCREASE TO 20-30 KT WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 10-20 FT NW OF A LINE FROM 30N134W TO 23N140W BY EARLY THU MORNING. THEN...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH 20 KT OR LESS ACROSS THE NW WATERS BY THU EVENING...BUT SWELL GENERATING BY OHO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WATERS N OF 21N W OF 131W WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 15 FT...HIGHEST ALONG 30N. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A FRONTAL TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF AND EXTENDS FROM 31.5N113W TO 29N114W. AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED NW WINDS OF 15-20 KT W OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO MAINLAND MEXICO LATE TONIGHT WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT. A 1020 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED N OF AREA NEAR 33N125W EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE N WATERS. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A 1011 MB LOW PRES LOCATED NEAR 20N122.5W IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF MAINLY FRESH WINDS WITH SEAS TO 9 FT WITHIN 180 NM NW QUADRANT OF LOW CENTER. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH IN ABOUT 24 HOURS WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT. THE HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A 1008 MB AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 08N114W AND IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 113W AND 118W. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM LATER THIS WEEK WHILE THE LOW MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. GAP WINDS... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN A RIDGE ALONG THE WEST AND NORTHWESTERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH. THIS IS COMBINING WITH NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW AND SUPPORTING A PLUME OF FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THAT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND TO NEAR 12.5N97W BY EARLY WED MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 8-10 FT. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS COMBINED WITH LOWER PRESSURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL INDUCE A GAP WIND EVENT ACROSS THIS GULF. THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWED NE-E WINDS OF MAINLY 20 KT ACROSS THIS AREA. WINDS THERE ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE TO AROUND 20 KT EACH OF THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS. CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL DOMINATES MOST OF THE FORECAST WATERS E OF 120W GENERATING AN AREA OF 8-9 FT SEAS S OF 07N BETWEEN 105W AND 120W. THE CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE S CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH 48 HOURS AS A NEW SET PROPAGATES ACROSS THE EQUATOR. $$ GR