000
AXPZ20 KNHC 061014
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC TUE OCT 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0915 UTC.               
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 09.5N74.5W TO 
07N80W TO 09.5N87W TO LOW PRES 1008 MB NEAR 10N107W TO 
10N115W...WHERE IT FRACTURES...THEN RESUMES FROM LOW PRES 1008 
MB NEAR 18N121.5W TO 07.5N134W TO BEYOND 11N140W. SCATTERED 
STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 90 NM N AND 180 NM S OF TROUGH E 
OF 86W. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
NOTED WITHIN 150 NM N AND 180 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 100W AND 
115W...AND WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH BETWEEN 123W AND 
133W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A DISSIPATED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS 
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF N OF 28N...ALIGNED N-NE 
TO S-SW AND WAS MEANDERING THERE THIS MORNING. WINDS ARE ASSUMED 
TO BE SW TO W 15 TO 20 KT AND SEAS 4-6 FT TO THE E AND SE OF 
THIS OLD BOUNDARY. THESE REMNANTS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO 
MAINLAND MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE TROUGHING WILL 
LINGER ACROSS NW BAJA THROUGHOUT TODAY AND ALSO SHIFT INTO 
MAINLAND MEXICO TONIGHT. WINDS SURROUNDING BOTH OF THESE TROUGHS 
ARE EXPECTED 10-15 KT LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT. 

THE DISSIPATED COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY LINGERING ACROSS THE 
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA EXTENDS SW ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA 
NORTE AND OFFSHORE INTO THE NE PACIFIC OFFSHORE WATERS TO NEAR 
27N120W. OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED ONLY LIGHT TO 
MODERATE NE WINDS BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT...AS A WEAK 1018 MB 
HIGH HAS SHIFTED SE TO NEAR 35N129W. WINDS ARE MORE LIGHT AND 
VARIABLE ELSEWHERE ALONG AND OFFSHORE OF THE REMAINDER OF THE 
PENINSULA...WITH SEAS GENERALLY 4-6 FT IN MIXED NNW WIND SWELL 
AND LONG PERIOD SW SWELL. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY SE OVER 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN BECOME RELATIVELY STATIONARY OVER THE 
NEXT FEW DAYS...AND INDUCED A MORE TYPICAL N TO NNW WIND FLOW OF 
10-15 KT ALONG THE ENTIRE PACIFIC COAST OF THE PENINSULA...WITH 
TYPICAL DIURNAL AND NOCTURNAL ENHANCEMENTS OF WINDS NEAR THE 
COAST. 

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING COVERS THE NW AND W CENTRAL WATERS 
REACHING FROM NEAR 32N139W TO 14N128W. MEANWHILE 1007 MB LOW 
PRESSURE IS JUST W OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS NEAR 17N145W. FRESH 
E-SE WINDS ARE FLOWING INTO THE LOW CIRCULATION FROM THE W 
CENTRAL WATERS AND THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH LONGER PERIOD 
NORTHERLY SWELL ARE RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS TO 8 FT FROM 14N 
TO 18N W OF 138W. THIS LOW WILL SHIFT NE AND BEGIN TO ACCELERATE 
DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...AND PASS JUST TO THE NW OF THE 
NORTHWESTERN WATERS BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HR...AND JUST AHEAD OF 
TROPICAL STORM OHO....CURRENTLY SSE OF THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII. 
AS THESE TWO FEATURES MOVE QUICKLY PAST NW PORTIONS THU...STRONG 
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP N OF 20N AND W OF 136W...WHERE S 
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT...POSSIBLY TO 30 KT ACROSS FAR 
NW PORTIONS...AND SEAS WILL BUILD 8 TO 15 FT AND HIGHER. 
INTERESTS TRANSITING THIS REGION SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF THE 
EVOLVING FORECAST FOR TROPICAL STORM OHO.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS IN 
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN A RIDGE ALONG THE WEST AND 
NORTHWESTERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND LOWER PRESSURE 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH. THIS IS COMBINING WITH 
NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW AND SUPPORTING A PLUME OF FRESH TO 
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THAT IS 
FORECAST TO EXTEND TO NEAR 13N96W BY SUNRISE...AND PEAK AROUND 
30 KT. THESE WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 8-10 FT. SIMILAR 
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE 
SPINE/INTERIOR OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS COMBINED WITH LOWER 
PRESSURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL INDUCE A 
RETURN TO FRESH NE-E WINDS OFFSHORE WINDS BLOWING OFF OF 
NICARAGUA THIS MORNING...WITH THE AIDE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE 
FLOW ENHANCING WINDS TO AROUND 20 KT ACROSS AND DOWNSTREAM OF 
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. WINDS THERE ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE TO 
AROUND 20 KT EACH OF THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS. 

A 1006 MB AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON 
TROUGH NEAR 18N121.5W. OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED 20-25 
KT SW TO S WINDS OCCURRING WITHIN 180 NM ACROSS THE SE 
SEMICIRCLE AND SUGGESTED SIMILAR WINDS WITHIN WITHIN 150 NM NW 
QUADRANT...WHERE SEAS ARE RUNNING 8-10 FT IN MIXED SWELL. THE 
LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH STRONG 
WINDS BECOMING CONFINED TO JUST THE NW SEMICIRCLE...AND THEN 
WILL OPENING UP INTO A TROUGH FROM 22.5N126W TO 17N129W BY 48 
HOURS...BUT STILL WITH A SMALL AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS ACROSS N 
PORTIONS AND SEAS TO 8 FT.

A LARGE AREA OF CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL SURROUNDS THE LOW AND 
COVERS THE S CENTRAL WATERS. THE CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL WILL 
PERSIST ACROSS THE S CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH 48 HOURS AS A NEW 
SURGE/SET PROPAGATES ACROSS THE EQUATOR.

$$
STRIPLING