000 AXPZ20 KNHC 051537 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC MON OCT 05 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 12N96W TO LOW PRES NEAR 09N107W TO 11N113W...THEN RESUMES FROM LOW PRES NEAR 15.5N122W TO 09N130W TO 13N140W. NO ITCZ AXIS PRESENT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 78W AND 86W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 101W AND 109W...AND ALSO FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN 122W AND 135W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF EXTENDING FROM 32N114W TO 31N115W. AN OVERNIGHT ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS W OF THE FRONT...WITH FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE SOUTHERLY WINDS N OF 29.5N E OF THE FRONT WHERE SEAS ARE ALSO UP TO 8 FT PER THE LATEST TAFB-NWPS MODEL GUIDANCE. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO MEASURED FROM 27N TO 29N. THE PRIMARILY FRONT WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD INTO MAINLAND MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE TROUGHING WILL LINGER ACROSS NW BAJA THROUGH TUE MORNING ALLOWING FOR FRESH TO STRONG WINDS TO LINGER IN THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE GULF...DIMINISHING BY TUE AFTERNOON. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE NW OF THE AREA OVER MEXICO AND LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH WHICH HAS EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO NEAR 12N96W. THIS COMBINED WITH NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW HAS SUPPORTED A POCKET OF FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE IMMEDIATE GULF THIS MORNING. THESE CONDITIONS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF DIMINISHING... HOWEVER A MORE IMPRESSIVE SURGE OF NORTHERLY WINDS WILL COMMENCE THIS EVENING WITH FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUE. THESE WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS UP TO 8-11 FT BY TUE MORNING. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING...AND MODEL GUIDANCE WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN CASE A GALE WARNING IS REQUIRED. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SPINE/INTERIOR OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS COMBINED WITH LOWER PRESSURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL INDUCE FRESH NE-E WINDS IN THE GULF BY TUE MORNING WITH THE AIDE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER BY SUNRISE WED MORNING WITH WINDS UP TO STRONG LEVELS. THE COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA EXTENDS ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE AND OFFSHORE INTO THE NE PACIFIC OFFSHORE WATERS FROM 29N115W TO 25N126W. SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE NW- N WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...HOWEVER ALTIMETER DATA SAMPLED SEAS OF 8 FT IN NW-N SWELL WHICH COVER THE WATERS ROUGHLY N OF 26N BETWEEN 120W AND 128W. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE OPEN PACIFIC WATERS BY 12 HOURS OR SO...AND THE NORTHERLY SWELL WILL ALSO SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY THEN. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING COVERS THE NW AND W CENTRAL WATERS REACHING FROM NEAR 32N139W TO 14N128W. MEANWHILE 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE IS JUST W OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS NEAR 14.5N144W. FRESH E-SE WINDS ARE FLOWING INTO THE LOW CIRCULATION FROM THE W CENTRAL WATERS AND THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH LONGER PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL ARE RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS TO 8 FT FROM 09N TO 16N W OF 137W. EXPECT THESE SEAS TO PERSIST DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS SHIFTING TO THE AREA FROM 15N TO 23N W OF 138W BY 48 HOURS. A 1006 MB AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 15.5N122W. OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER DATA CAPTURED FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WITHIN 300 NM IN THE SE SEMICIRCLE...AS WELL AS WITHIN 90 NM IN THE NW SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. ALTIMETER DATA ALSO MEASURED SEAS OF 8-11 FT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS...THEN WILL OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH FROM 22N123W TO 13N130W BY 48 HOURS WITH THE AREA OF RESIDUAL 8 FT SEAS SUBSIDING BY THEN. A LARGE AREA OF CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL SURROUNDS THE LOW AND COVERS THE S CENTRAL WATERS. THE CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE S CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH 48 HOURS AS A NEW SURGE/SET PROPAGATES ACROSS THE EQUATOR. $$ LEWITSKY