000 AXPZ20 KNHC 050949 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC MON OCT 05 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N75W TO 07.5N83W TO 12N101W TO LOW PRES NEAR 07.5N104.5W 1007 MB TO 10N114W...WHERE IT REMAINS FRACTURED...THEN RESUMES FROM LOW PRES NEAR 15.5N122W 1006 MB TO LOW PRES NEAR 08.5N130W 1008 MB TO BEYOND 14N140W. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 60 NM N AND 150 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 78W AND 86W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 90 NM N AND 270 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 98W AND 114W. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 150 NM N AND 240 NM S AND SE OF TROUGH AND LOWS BETWEEN 119W AND 136W. ...DISCUSSION... ACROSS THE TROPICS...A 1006 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 15.5N122W. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FLARE S AND SE OF THIS LOW BUT HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS N AND NW PORTIONS. THE SOUTHERN TAIL OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NE PORTIONS OF THE AREA HAS REACHED THIS LOW AND IS PRODUCING UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION AND LIMITING UPWARD MOTION THERE. 0500-0600 UTC ASCAT PASSES OVERNIGHT SHOWED AN ELONGATED ZONE OF 20-25 KT WINDS WITHIN 300 NM ACROSS THE SE SEMICIRCLE...WHERE SEAS WERE RUNNING 8 TO 11 FT...AND AN AREA OF AROUND 20 KT WINDS WITHIN 180 NM ACROSS THE NW SEMICIRCLE WHERE SEAS WERE TO 8 FT. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH THE WEAKENING TAIL OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NW NEAR 10 KT...AND WEAKEN TO AN OPEN TROUGH BY WED. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR 20 KT ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE LOW THROUGH 36 HOURS...WITH MERGING SW AND NW SWELL HELP KEEPING SEAS TO 8 FT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW MARTY MOVED INLAND ACROSS CENTRAL SINALOA MEXICO LATE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH. CONVERGING LINES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OCCURRING BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS OFF OF MANZANILLO AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA ARE INTERACTING WITH THE E FLANKS OF THE UPPER TROUGH TO PRODUCE ISOLATED LINES AND CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS THERE. STRONG S TO SW WINDS ACROSS THIS COASTAL AREA YESTERDAY HAVE DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY OVERNIGHT AND SEAS HAVE FALLEN TO 4 TO 7 FT IN MIXED SW WAVES AND SWELL EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WILL IMPROVE FURTHER TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS SWEPT A COLD FRONT SE ACROSS NE PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...AND EXTENDED FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE TO NEAR 25N125W EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND BECOME ILL DEFINED TODAY AS IT DRIFTS SE. NW SWELL BEHIND THIS FRONT HAS BROUGHT SEAS IN THE 7-9 FT RANGE TO THE AREA N OF 26N BETWEEN 118W-131W. THIS AREA OF HIGHER SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT BY MON EVENING AS THE SWELL TRAIN TRAVELS SOUTHWARD. THE COLD FRONT HAS HELPED TO WEAKEN THE SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE N WATERS. AS A RESULT...ONLY MODERATE NE TO TRADE WINDS LIE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH W OF 125W. A REGION OF GRADUALLY SUBSIDING SEAS...CURRENTLY IN THE 7-9 FT RANGE IN NW SWELL...PREVAILS OVER W WATERS FROM 07N-18N. THESE SEAS WILL MERGE MON WITH AN AREA OF 8-10 FT SEAS BEING GENERATED BY A LOW PRES SYSTEM W OF THE AREA TODAY THROUGH AND TUE. GAP WINDS... GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE AND HIGH PRES IN THE U.S. GREAT BASIN HAS INCREASE THE S TO SW WINDS FLOWING THROUGH FAR N PORTIONS OF THE GULF TONIGHT...WITH 0400-0500 UTC ASCAT PASSES SHOWING WINDS 20-25 KT AND LIKELY GUSTING TO AROUND 30 KT N OF 29.5N...WHERE SEAS AREA BUILDING 6-9 FT EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING TO MAINTAIN ROUGH SEAS ACROSS N PORTIONS OF THE GULF...BEFORE WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...DEEP-LAYER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND NE MAINLAND MEXICO LATE TODAY INTO TUE. THIS WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. N WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FUNNEL THROUGH CHIVELA PASS BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND REACH NEAR GALE CONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AROUND SUNRISE TUE WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW BEFORE BACKING OFF TO A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE TUE AFTERNOON...CONTINUING INTO TUE EVENING. $$ STRIPLING