000
AXPZ20 KNHC 041525
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC SUN OCT 4 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.               
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

DISCONTINUOUS MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N77W TO 05N81W TO 
11N94W TO 06N109W...THEN RESUMES FROM 17N117W TO LOW PRES NEAR 
15N122W TO 11N130W TO 12N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION NEAR COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 04N TO 07N E OF 79W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 S OF TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 
100W-105W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 10N-14N 
BETWEEN 119W-125W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
WITHIN 60 NM OF 10N134W. 

...DISCUSSION...

ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...THE 
REMNANTS OF MARTY...CENTERED NEAR 22N107W WITH SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ALONG A TROUGH AXIS FROM 19N TO 
25N BETWEEN 105W AND 108W. AN ASCAT PASS AT 0352 UTC SHOWED 20 
TO 30 KT WINDS FROM 18N-23N ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO. THE LOW 
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND LATER TODAY...WITH WINDS AND SEAS 
DIMINISHING RAPIDLY AFTERWARDS TONIGHT AND MON. 

1004 MB LOW PRES IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 15N122W. 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FLARE S OF THE LOW 
FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 119W-125W. PERSISTENT SW MONSOONAL FLOW S 
OF A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW TO NEAR 11N130W WILL ALLOW 
SEAS TO BUILD TO 8-9 FT THROUGH MON...THEN SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT 
TUE AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND THE TROUGH BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE.

A 998 MB LOW PRES CENTERED NEAR THE COAST OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA 
IS SUPPORTING STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS N OF THE AREA. 
THESE WINDS ARE PRODUCING N-NW SWELL WHICH IS SWEEPING S OF 30N 
BETWEEN 120W-128W WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN 
THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AND ALLOW SEAS TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT BY MON 
NIGHT. MEANWHILE...STRONG S-SW WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH FROM 35N115W TO 28N118W WILL AFFECT THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA N OF 29N-30N THROUGH MON MORNING...THEN DIMINISH IN 
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN THE NORTHERN GULF WILL REMAIN BELOW 8 FT 
DUE TO LIMITED AVAILABLE FETCH.

A 1006 MB LOW PRES JUST W OF THE AREA IS SHOWING INCREASED SIGNS 
OF DEVELOPMENT AND HAS ACTIVE CONVECTION SE OF THE CENTER. THIS 
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TUE 
WITH SEAS GRADUALLY BUILDING TO 9-10 FT FROM 09N-16N W OF 136W. 
WINDS ALONG 140W MAY EXCEED 25 KT BY MON NIGHT DEPENDING ON THE 
MOVEMENT AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW. SEE THE TROPICAL WEATHER 
OUTLOOK ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU 
FOR MORE DETAILS. 

GAP WINDS...                                                     
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN GULF 
OF MEXICO WILL INDUCE NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF 
TEHUANTEPEC STARTING MON WHICH WILL FUNNEL INTO THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC ON THE PACIFIC SIDE MON NIGHT AND TUE. N-NE WINDS 
ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK AT 25-30 KT TUE MORNING WITH SEAS BUILDING 
TO 8-9 FT.

$$
MUNDELL