000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040906
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC SUN OCT 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.               
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 9N78W ALONG 9N87W TO 
1009 MB LOW NEAR 8N102W TO 9N108W...THEN RESUMES FROM 16N118W TO 
1005 MB LOW NEAR 14N123W 11N130W TO 13N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 
132W-136W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 75 NM OF COLOMBIA COAST FROM 2N-8N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 123W-138W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A 1003 MB LOW...POST-TROPICAL REMNANTS OF MARTY...IS CENTERED 
NEAR 20.5N108N AND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRONG TO NEAR GALE 
FORCE WINDS E OF THE LOW TO THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 18N-23N. 
THE LOW ALSO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DEEP CONVECTION E OF THE LOW. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-24N BETWEEN 
105W-108W...INCLUDING CABO CORRIENTES. THE LOW IS RACING N-NE 
AND IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND BECOME AN OPEN TROUGH THIS MORNING 
WITH THE WINDS DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE SEAS WILL 
BUILD UP TO 11 FT BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING LATE TONIGHT

A 1005 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 14N123W. 
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FLARE SE THE LOW WHERE THE BASE OF A 
NARROW UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE N GULF OF CALIFORNIA 
ALONG 20N116W TO 13N122W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 118W-124W. THE SYSTEM IS 
BEING LURED TO THE NE BY AN ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH. WINDS 
ARE BELIEVED TO HAVE DIMINISHED TO A FRESH BREEZE AROUND THE 
LOW. SEAS TO 9 FT ARE WITHIN 210 NM IN THE SE QUADRANT WITH A 
SMALL AREA OF SEAS TO 8 FT WITHIN 180 OVER THE NW QUADRANT. THE 
AREA OF 9 FT SEAS WILL EXPAND ON SUN NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING 
SLIGHTLY AND OVER A REDUCED AREA THROUGH MON NIGHT. 

SURFACE RIDGING ORIGINATING WELL N OF THE AREA NOW ENCOMPASSES 
THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 125W. AN AREA OF FRESH E-NE TRADE WINDS 
LIES OVER W WATERS N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER A REGION OF 
GRADUALLY SUBSIDING SEAS. A 1006 MB LOW IS W OF THE AREA 
GENERATING DEEP CONVECTION WITH 8 FT SEAS JUST W OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA. STRONG WINDS AND SEAS TO 9 FT IN NW SWELL WILL 
BE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM 7N-13N W OF 138W THIS EVENING.  
CURRENTLY AN AREA OF 9 FT SEAS IS TO THE N FROM 15N-22N W OF 
128W. THESE AREAS WILL MERGE WITH THIS EVENING WITH STRONG WINDS 
AND SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH MON WITH 
SEAS REMAINING.

THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES IS PRODUCING 
SWELL OVER THE AREA N OF 28N BETWEEN 120W AND 127W WITH SEAS TO 
9 FT. THIS AREA WILL EXPAND TODAY BEFORE DIMINISHING MON 
MORNING. 

GAP WINDS...                                                     
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THIS SAME UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN 
UNITED STATES AND NW MEXICO WILL INDUCE A STRONG PRESSURE 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE U.S. GREAT BASIN AND THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA. THIS IS PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG S-SW WINDS IN THE 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA FROM 25N TO 28N THAT WILL SHIFT TO N OF 30N 
LATER THIS MORNING TO NEAR GALE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DROPPING 
RATHER QUICKLY MON AFTERNOON. SEAS COULD BUILD AS TO 8 FT.

$$
PAW