000 AXPZ20 KNHC 031605 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SAT OCT 03 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 14N92W TO 10N97W TO LOW PRES NEAR 07N101W TO 04N107W. ANOTHER MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM LOW PRES NEAR 17N110W TO 17N120W TO LOW PRES NEAR 14N124W TO 12N130W TO 12N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 117W-120W...WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 122W-124W...AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 131W-136W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF TROUGH BETWEEN 101W-107W...AND ALSO SE OF TROUGH WITHIN 45 NM OF 07N94W. ...DISCUSSION... THE 12 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS THE AREA UNDER MOSTLY BROAD LOW PRESSURE. A WEAK RIDGE STRETCHES INTO THE AREA THROUGH 32N133W AND TO 23N123W. LOW PRES 1005 MB IS ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 14N124W. SATELLITE IMAGERY IS REVEALING CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER AND NEAR THE LOW AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE NE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH A LOW POTENTIAL FOR IT BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. SEAS OF 7-9 FT IN SE SWELL ARE WITHIN 210 NM OF THE LOW IN THE SE SEMICIRCLE. BY 48 HOURS...THE LOW IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR 15N122W WITH SEAS 7-9 FT IN MERGING SW AND NW SWELL FROM 08N-17N BETWEEN 115W-127W. POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW OF MARTY CONTINUES TO PRODUCE CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION. THIS CONVECTION IS OBSERVED AS THE SCATTERED STRONG TYPE FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 106W-109W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN WITHIN 90 NM OF THE LOW IN THE NE QUADRANT...AND ALSO FROM 22N-24N E OF 109W TO INLAND MEXICO. THE LOW S FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE NE TOWARDS THE GENERAL VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH...THEN WEAKEN TO A TROUGH MON OVER AND NEAR THE FAR SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF NW MEXICO THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A GALE CENTER NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS GENERATING A LARGE SWELL TRAIN FROM THE NW PRODUCING SEAS OF 8-10 FT OVER THE NW PORTION N OF ABOUT 23N AND W OF 130W. THESE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 8 FT BY EARLY SUN AFTERNOON...THEN MERGE WITH THE AREA OF 8-9 FT SEAS BEING GENERATED BY A LOW PRES SYSTEM W OF THE AREA THAT IS EXPECTED TO BRING FRESH TO STRONG S-SW WINDS TO THE WATERS CONFINED FROM 08N-12N W OF 138W BY EARLY SUN AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT SUN NIGHT...HOWEVER SEAS OF 8-10 FT IN NW SWELL WILL PERSIST THERE THROUGH MON. GAP WINDS... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC... PRESENT N TO NE WINDS OF 20-30 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND BECOME NE-E 10-15 KT THIS EVENING AS THE CULPRIT TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO WEAKENS. SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 8-11 FT ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE TO 6-8 FT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND TO AROUND 3-5 FT TONIGHT. GULF OF CALIFORNIA... AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND NW MEXICO WILL INDUCE A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE U.S. GREAT BASIN AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG S-SW WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF ABOUT 29.5N FROM EARLY SUN THROUGH EARLY MON. A STRONG BREEZE WILL BE OFF CABO CORRIENTES STARTING EARLY SUN THEN EXPAND INTO THE S GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH SUN NIGHT. $$ AGUIRRE