000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030931
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC SAT OCT 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.               
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

THE MONSOON TROUGH WAS ANALYZED FROM 9N82W ALONG 10N91W TO 
7N100W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N TO THE MONSOON 
TROUGH BETWEEN 90W-95W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N101W TO 
7N102W TO 4N101W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. 

...DISCUSSION...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES COVERS THE AREA FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 
117W AND 132W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 16N117W 
THROUGH A 1005 MB LOW NEAR 14N122W ALONG 12N126W TO 14N133W. 
CONVECTION IS THE NE OF THE LOW CENTER WITH SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION/STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM BOTH SIDES OF THE 
SURFACE TROUGH BETWEEN 118W-121W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM BOTH SIDES OF THE SURFACE 
TROUGH W OF 130W. MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM BEING LURED 
NE BY AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH. THE FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR 
THIS SYSTEM TO MOVE SLOWLY TO THE NE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. 
WINDS APPEAR TO HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 
20-25 KT AND ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER TODAY. SEAS TO 9 FT 
IN PRIMARILY IN SE SWELL CAN BE FOUND WITHIN 120 NM SE 
SEMICIRCLE AND SEAS TO 8 FT NW OF THE LOW. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 
8 FT TONIGHT BUT REBUILD AGAIN SUN NIGHT. 

POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW OF MARTY CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DEEP 
CONVECTION...WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION  
OVER THE NE QUADRANT TO THE COAST OF MEXICO. A RECENT 
SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED WINDS ARE 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS WILL 
BE SUBSIDING WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST 
TO DRIFT N-NE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT 
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BUT IS POSSIBLE TO BRING HEAVY RAINS TO 
PORTIONS OF NW MEXICO THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  

A GALE CENTER NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS GIVING THE NW WATERS 
N OF 23N W OF 103W SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT. THE WINDS HAVE DIMINISH 
TO A FRESH BREEZE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NW AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE 
SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AND SINK TO THE S THEN MERGING WITH 
THE AREA OF 8 TO 9 FT SEAS BEING GENERATED BY A LOW PRES SYSTEM 
W OF THE AREA THAT IS EXPECTED TO BRING FRESH TO STRONG S-SW 
WINDS TO THE REGION FROM 7N-13N W OF 138W ON SUN. 

GAP WINDS...                                                     
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...HIGH PRES OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO 
AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL SECTIONS OF EASTERN MEXICO IS DRIVING A 
SURGE OF STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE N-NE WINDS IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN 
AND TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY TODAY...DIMINISHING THE FUNNELING 
THROUGH CHIVELA PASS AND ALLOWING WINDS IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC TO DIP BELOW A STRONG BREEZE BY THIS AFTERNOON AND 
TO MODERATE BREEZE EARLY SUN. SEAS TO 11 FT CURRENTLY IN PLACE 
WILL SUBSIDE AS THE WINDS DIMINISH.
  
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN 
UNITED STATES AND NW MEXICO WILL INDUCE A STRONG PRESSURE 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE U.S. GREAT BASIN AND THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA. THIS SHOULD DRIVE FRESH TO STRONG S-SW WINDS IN THE 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 29N FROM EARLY SUN THROUGH EARLY MON. 
STRONG BREEZE WILL BE OFF CABO CORRIENTES STARTING EARLY SUN 
THEN EXPAND INTO THE S GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH SUN NIGHT. 

$$
PAW