000 AXPZ20 KNHC 020947 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC FRI OCT 02 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1006 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 13N124W MOVING W-SW 5-10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED BELOW ABOUT THE MONSOON TROUGH AND GENERALLY AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS BROAD CIRCULATION. THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST TO WEST SOUTHWEST AND INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AND THEN IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM MAY BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE THE END OF THE WEEKEND. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LOW PRES NEAR 17.5N109W 1007 MB TO LOW PRES NEAR 13N124W 1006 MB TO 09N134W TO BEYOND 09.5N140W. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 02.5N TO 09N BETWEEN 88W AND 104W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG N OF 11.5N BETWEEN 94.5W AND 98W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N AND 240 NM S OF TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 116W AND 131W...AND WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS W OF 131W. ...DISCUSSION... POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW MARTY CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DEEP CONVECTION...AIDED BY UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OCCURRING TO THE SE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING WITHIN 300 NM NE AND 180 NM SE QUADRANTS...SPREADING E ACROSS LAS ISLAS TRES MARIAS TO THE COAST OF GUADALAJARA MEXICO. SURFACE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW ARE ASSUMED TO HAVE DIMINISHED TO AROUND 20 K ACROSS THE N SEMICIRCLE WHERE SEAS REMAIN NEAR 8 FT. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NW AND AWAY FROM THE COAST...AND WILL GRADUALLY BECOME AN OPEN TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND...AND BECOME ABSORBED WITHIN THE BASE OF A TROUGH FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA. SURFACE RIDGING ORIGINATING WELL N OF THE AREA EXTENDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION N OF 22N. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH EARLY SAT THEN SHIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD ON SUN. THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WILL TIGHTEN AS THIS OCCURS...WITH FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG N-NW WINDS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY SAT OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 8 FT. SURFACE TROUGHING WILL BUILD FURTHER W OF THE LOCAL AREA... DIRECTING FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS OVER THE NW WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD AHEAD OF THE WINDS...REACHING 8 TO 10 FT IN PRIMARILY NW SWELL THIS MORNING THEN BUILDING TO AS HIGH AS 13 FT ACROSS THE EXTREME NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA BY AFTERNOON. AFTER THE WINDS DIMINISH SAT...GRADUALLY SUBSIDING SEAS IN NW SWELL ARE EXPECTED...AND WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD FROM 15N TO 23N W OF 126W BY SAT NIGHT. GAP WINDS... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...HIGH PRES IS BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL SECTIONS OF EASTERN MEXICO BEHIND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS A RESULT...A SURGE OF STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE N-NE WINDS IS BLOWING ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...AND EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE QUICKLY DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 20 KT SAT EVENING. SEAS DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO AS HIGH AS 11 FT TODAY. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AMERICAN GAP WIND PRONE AREAS...LOW PRESSURE PREVAILING ACROSS THE REGION E OF 110W IS COMBINING WITH BROAD LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE W HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN INFLUENCED BY HURRICANE JOAQUIN...RESULTING IN LIGHT TO GENTLE ONSHORE WINDS E OF 92W REACHING THE COASTLINES. THIS SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL ONSHORE REGIONAL WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THIS PORTION OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO GUATEMALA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. $$ STRIPLING