000
AXPZ20 KNHC 012159
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC THU OCT 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2030 UTC.               

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1006 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 13N123W. 
DEEP CONVECTION IS DISPLACED BETWEEN 120 NM AND 300 NM S OF THE 
LOW AT THIS TIME. THE MODELS SHOW SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS 
SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WESTWARD INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT 
OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. IT MAY BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE 
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SAT AFTERNOON.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

THE MONSOON TROUGH WAS ANALYZED FROM 10N85W TO 08N97W TO 
11N101W...THEN CONTINUES FROM 17N113W TO LOW PRES NEAR 13N123W 
1006 MB TO 09N130W TO 10N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS 
FROM 04N-10N BETWEEN 89W-101W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS 
BETWEEN 120 NM AND 300 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 120W-130W. 

...DISCUSSION...

POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW MARTY CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DEEP 
CONVECTION...WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM E 
SEMICIRCLE. THE ASCAT PASS SHOWED 20-25 WINDS WITHIN 60 NM N 
SEMICIRCLE. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB. THE 
ASCAT PASS ALSO SHOWED THE CENTER IS BEGINNING TO OPEN UP. THE 
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND BECOME A TROUGH ON FRI AS IT 
CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE COAST. 

SURFACE RIDGING ORIGINATING FROM 1019 MB HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA 
NEAR 33N134W CAN BE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION N OF 25N. THIS RIDGE 
IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN. THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE BAJA 
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WILL TIGHTEN AS THIS OCCURS...WITH FRESH TO 
OCCASIONALLY STRONG N-NW WINDS EXPECTED EARLY FRI THROUGH EARLY 
SAT OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE. SEAS ARE 
EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 8 FT. 

SURFACE TROUGHING WILL BUILD FURTHER W OF THE AREA...DIRECTING 
FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS OVER THE NW WATERS FRI AFTERNOON AND 
EVENING. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD AHEAD OF THE WINDS...WITH TO 
8 TO 10 FT EXPECTED IN PRIMARILY NW SWELL BY FRI MORNING AND 
BUILDING TO AS HIGH AS 13 FT BY AFTERNOON. AFTER THE WINDS 
DIMINISH...GRADUALLY SUBSIDING SEAS OVER 8 FT WILL SHIFT 
SOUTHWARD ACROSS WATERS N OF 17N W OF 130W THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON.

GAP WINDS...                                                     
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...HIGH PRES IS BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN 
GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ADJACENT EASTERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF 
MEXICO. AS A RESULT...A SURGE OF STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE N-NE 
WINDS IS OCCURRING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO DOWNSTREAM TO 
13N96.5W AS CONFIRMED BY RECENT ASCAT PASSES. SEAS ARE EXPECTED 
TO BUILD TO AS HIGH AS 12 FT DURING THIS EVENT WHICH IS EXPECTED 
TO PERSIST THROUGH SAT MORNING. BY SAT AFTERNOON...WINDS IN THE 
GULF OF MEXICO ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND TURN MORE 
NORTHEASTERLY...DIMINISHING THE FUNNELING THROUGH CHIVELA PASS 
AND ALLOWING WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO DIP BELOW A 
STRONG BREEZE.
  
$$
SCHAUER