000
AXPZ20 KNHC 281515
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC MON SEP 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.               

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM MARTY CENTERED NEAR 16.1N 103.0W AT 28/1500 UTC 
MOVING N AT 3 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. NUMEROUS 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM NE AND 60 NM SW OF 
THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE WITHIN 
150 NM OF THE CENTER. MARTY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NNE WITH 
LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY THROUGH TUE.  DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE 
AND HEAVY RAIN WILL SPREAD INLAND ACROSS SW MEXICO...INCREASING 
THE LIKELIHOOD OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES. LARGE 
SWELL WILL PROPAGATE TOWARD SHORE RESULTING IN DANGEROUS SURF 
AND RIP CURRENTS. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

THE EASTERN PORTION OF A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N86W TO 
12N96W. THE WESTERN PORTION EXTENDS FROM 15N106W TO A LOW PRES 
NEAR 10N122W TO 09N131W TO 12N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM N AND 90 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 
107W AND 125W.

...DISCUSSION...

NEARLY STATIONARY OCCLUDED 1007 MB LOW PRES NEAR 33N134W WITH A 
COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N131W TO 24N140W. RECENT ASCAT PASS 
SHOWED MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS W OF THE FRONT AND STRONGER WINDS 
TO THE NORTH. 8-10 FT SEAS ARE PROPAGATING INTO THE NW CORNER OF 
THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT E AND STALL FROM 
30N128W TO 26N133W TO 21N140W DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE A 
REINFORCING SURGE OF COOL AIR PUSHES BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG A 
TROUGH FROM 30N136W TO 26N140W. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE TUE AND 
WED WITH MARINE CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING.

A 1007 MB LOW EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 10N122W WILL 
DRIFT ENE IN ENHANCED MONSOONAL FLOW THROUGH WED WITH LITTLE 
CHANGE IN INTENSITY EXPECTED. LONG TERM ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS 
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE LATER IN THE WEEK. CROSS-
EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL MIXED WITH SW WIND WAVES S OF THE 
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WILL PRODUCE 8-10 FT SEAS ROUGHLY FROM 05N-
12N BETWEEN 110W-122W ACROSS S CENTRAL WATERS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
    
$$
MUNDELL