000
AXPZ20 KNHC 251510
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC FRI SEP 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1330 UTC.               

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 105W FROM 05N TO 15N. THE 
WAVE WAS MOVING W AROUND 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 180 NM W AND 120 NM E OF THE WAVE FROM 07N-
13N.

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 136W FROM 05N-17N. THE WAVE 
WAS MOVING W AROUND 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE FROM 05N-
08N.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 08N78W TO LOW PRES 
NEAR 13N91W 1006 MB TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N102W 1007 MB TO 09N113W 
TO 11N133W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
WAS S OF THE AXIS TO 04N E OF 81W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION WAS FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 87W-95W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 120 NM E AND S QUADRANTS OF THE 
LOW PRES CENTER NEAR 10N102W. 

...DISCUSSION...

THERE ARE TWO SURFACE LOWS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON GYRE E OF 
110W. THE EASTERN SYSTEM IS A 1006 MB LOW ANALYZED NEAR 13N91W. 
THIS LOW LIES WITHIN AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION FOUND FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 87W-95W. SOME SLOW 
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS EXPECTED. THE LOW CURRENTLY LIES 
UNDER A REGION OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO 
LINGER OVER THE LOW AS IT MEANDERS OFF THE COAST OF GUATEMALA 
AND SOUTHERN MEXICO FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE VERTICAL LIFT OF 
MOISTURE POOLED NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION 
NEAR THE LOW. THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW TO CENTRAL AMERICA WILL 
RESULT IN HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF EL SALVADOR...SOUTHERN 
GUATEMALA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A 1007 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM NEAR 10N102W ALSO LIES WITHIN THE 
MONSOON GYRE. AN ASCAT-A PASS FROM 0420 UTC SHOWED 20-25 KT SW 
WINDS FEEDING INTO THE LOW. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 120 NM E AND S QUADRANTS OF THE LOW. 
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW BROKE AWAY FROM THE TROPICAL 
WAVE ALONG 105W. THAT TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE W 
AROUND 10-15 KT WHILE THE LOW IS FORECAST TO BE DRAWN 
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BY AN UPPER- TO MID-LEVEL 
TROUGH AMPLIFYING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM NE MEXICO TO JUST W OF THIS 
LOW. CURRENTLY...THIS LOW PRES SYSTEM IS GIVEN A LOW CHANCE OF 
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 1018 MB HIGH PRES N OF THE 
DISCUSSION WATERS NEAR 34N130W THROUGH 24N122W TO 18N110W. 
SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS W OF   
110W WHERE 4-7 FT SEAS PREVAIL. A COLD FRONT IS JUST NW OF THE 
AREA. THE FRONT WILL SAG SLOWLY TO THE SE INTO SAT BEFORE 
STALLING WITH LOW PRES DEVELOPING ALONG IT JUST N OF THE 
DISCUSSION WATERS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN N-NW SWELL WILL FILTER INTO 
NW WATERS BEHIND THE FRONT BY EARLY SUN.

GAP WINDS...PULSES OF FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE N-NE WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED ACROSS AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED DURING 
MAXIMUM DRAINAGE AROUND SUNRISE. SEAS WILL BUILD TO UP TO 11 FT. 
    
$$
SCHAUER