000
AXPZ20 KNHC 241515
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC THU SEP 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.               

...TROPICAL LOWS AND TROPICAL WAVES... 

1007 MB LOW PRES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH IS NEARLY 
STATIONARY NEAR 11N92W. AN ASCAT PASS AROUND 0400 UTC SHOWED A 
BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT. ANIMATED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW IN SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH. MODEL GUIDANCE 
INDICATES SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY FOR THE DISTURBANCE AS IT 
DRIFTS WESTWARD THEN NORTHWARD THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 99W FROM 06N-15N IS MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE 
WAVE AXIS NEAR 14N...AND ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 
08N-09N.

AN ELONGATED TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING SSW FROM 19N123W TO 04N130W 
IS MOVING W AT 10 KT. ISOLATED CONVECTIVE CELLS WITHIN 45-60 NM 
W OF THE WAVE AXIS.

1008 LOW PRES AREA CENTERED NEAR 14N132W DRIFTING W AT 5-10 KT 
HAS ISOLATED CONVECTIVE CELLS WITHIN 90 NM NE OF THE CIRCULATION 
CENTER. THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AND WEAKEN TO A 
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO LOW PRES 1007 MB NEAR 
11N92W TO 08N101W TO 09N116W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N130W TO 
05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
45 NM N AND 90 NM S OF THE TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 89W AND 106W.

...DISCUSSION...

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE GYRE OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS COVERS THE 
EASTERN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ROUGHLY FROM 08N-15N 
BETWEEN 84W-100W. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT A MORE DEFINITIVE 
LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL FORM WITHIN THIS GYRE LATER THIS WEEK AND 
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES N OR NE TOWARDS THE COAST OF MEXICO. SW 
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN SOUTH-CENTRAL WATERS BETWEEN 
95W-110W AS THE CIRCULATION EVOLVES. MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS 
VERY ACTIVE MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS LIKELY ALONG THE 
CONVERGENCE ZONE BOUNDARY E OF 105W-110W THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS OVER NORTHERN WATERS N OF 20N W OF 
110W...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS 
THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 17N W OF 115W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT E 
OF THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE NW WINDS FROM 21N 
TO 27N BETWEEN 108W-115W AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA S OF 27N. A 
DYING COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE FAR NW WATERS FRI...THEN 
STRONGER HIGH PRES WILL PUSH SE INTO N CENTRAL WATERS SATURDAY 
AND TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT W OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND 
NORTHERN WITH NW SWELL AND RESULTANT SEAS TO 7 FT PROPAGATING S 
TO NEAR 30N BETWEEN 118W-124W. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE 
EXCEPT FOR THE BROAD LOW PRES GYRE DESCRIBED ABOVE.

GAP WINDS...PULSES OF STRONG NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AND 
DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH 
STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED AROUND SUNRISE EACH MORNING PEAKING IN 
EXCESS OF 25 KT...WITH INDUCED SEAS OF 8-9 FT. 
     
$$
MUNDELL