000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220236
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC TUE SEP 22 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.                
 
...TROPICAL WAVES... 

TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS NEAR 109W FROM 08N TO 17N...ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 17N BETWEEN 104W AND 110W. 
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N77W TO 09N82W TO 10N97W WHERE IT 
REMAINS FRACTURED. IT RESUMES FROM 16N120W TO 13N125W TO BEYOND 
12N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 04N E OF 90W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 09N TO 14N 
BETWEEN 126W AND 140W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...

REMNANT LOW OF T.D. SIXTEEN-E IS INLAND OVER S ARIZONA NEAR 
32N113W 1006 MB AT 0000 UTC SEP 22 MOVING NORTHERLY AT 15 KT. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 25 KT WITH TO GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS 
AND SEAS OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA ARE 20 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 
LESS THAN 8 FT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE CENTER 
OVER N MEXICO...ARIZONA...AND NEW MEXICO N OF 27N BETWEEN 103W 
AND 110W. THE MAIN HAZARD FROM THE REMNANT LOW CONTINUES TO BE 
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND 
MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1022 MB CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 44N134W 
EXTENDS A RIDGE S TO NEAR 27N130W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE 
RIDGE AND MONSOON TROUGH IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH 
NE TRADE WINDS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA W OR 127W. THIS 
IS RESULTING IN SEAS TO 8 FT FROM 14N TO 16N W OF 138W. THE HIGH 
PRES CENTER WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS AND SEAS 
WILL DECREASE WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT BY TUE.
 
GAP WINDS...A PULSING OF NORTHERLY FLOW HAS BEGUN ACROSS THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS WILL PEAK DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND 
EARLY MORNING HOURS TO NEAR 30 KT TONIGHT AND TUE NIGHT. WINDS 
ARE THEN FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT DURING TUE AFTERNOON WITH 
SEAS LOWERING TO AROUND 8 FT. 
 
$$
FORMOSA