000 AXPZ20 KNHC 210958 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC MON SEP 21 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E...LOCATED NEAR 27.7N 112.7W 1003 MB AT 0900 UTC SEP 21 MOVING NNE OR 015 DEG AT 15 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 45 KT...AS WAS INDICATED BY ASCAT PASSES FROM 0400 AND 0500 UTC. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE BURST OF SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION NE OF THE DEPRESSION CIRCULATION OVER THE NW SECTION OF MEXICO FROM 27N-31.5N BETWEEN 109W-112W. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS BEING DRIVEN IN A NE DIRECTION UNDER MODERATE SW WINDS ALOFT. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO RE-EMERGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING BEFORE MOVING INLAND AGAIN ACROSS THE STATE OF SONORA MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN HAZARD FROM THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL THAT WILL OCCUR WITH AND WELL AHEAD OF THE DEPRESSION OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA...NW MAINLAND MEXICO...SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...AND THEN ACROSS ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO THROUGH TUE. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND LEAD TO MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MEXICO. WITH RESPECT TO RESULTANT MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...AS STATED EARLIER THE ASCAT PASSES 0400 AND 0500 UTC INDICATED THAT MAXIMUM WINDS OF THE DEPRESSION WERE IMPACTING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITH WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF WATERS...AND WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW MEXICO. RELATED SEAS ARE IN THE 8-10 FT RANGE. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH S-SW WINDS OF 20-25 KT EXPECTED FROM 27N-29N WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. BY THE 24 HOURS...THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BE A REMNANT LOW WELL INLAND NEAR 33N110W. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE 20 KT OR LESS OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ALONG 107W MOVING W 10-15 KT. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 06N-09N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 08N76W TO 08N86W TO 08N96W WHERE IT REMAINS FRACTURED. IT RESUMES FROM 18N115W TO 14N122W TO 12N128W TO BEYOND 10N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 121W- 123W...WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 126W-130W...AND WITHIN 30 NM OF TROUGH W OF 139W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS SE AND S OF THE TROUGH WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM 06N115W TO 05N119W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 79W-82W. ...DISCUSSION... A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED WELL NW OF THE AREA NEAR 37N151W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 22N128W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND MONSOON TROUGH IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH NE TRADE WINDS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA W OR 127W. THIS IS RESULTING IN SEAS TO 8 FT FROM FROM 13N TO 18N W OF 136W. THE HIGH PRES CENTER WILL SHIFT WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHICH WILL WEAKEN THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE WESTERN WATERS AND RESULT IN DIMINISHED TRADE WINDS...WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY THIS EVENING. GAP WINDS...A PULSING OF NLY FLOW HAS BEGUN ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS WILL PEAK DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS NEAR 25 KT TONIGHT AND TO NEAR OR AT 30 KT TUE MORNING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT. WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT DURING TUE AFTERNOON WITH SEAS LOWERING TO AROUND 8 FT. THE NLY WINDS THEN INCREASE QUICKLY TO 20-25 KT EARLY TUE EVENING AND FURTHER TO 20-30 KT BY LATE TUE NIGHT AT WHICH TIME THE LOWER RANGE OF THE IS EXPECTED TO REACH TO NEAR 14N AND BETWEEN 95W-96W WITH SEAS AGAIN BUILDING TO 10 FT. $$ AGUIRRE