000
AXPZ20 KNHC 151547
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC TUE SEP 15 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.               

...TROPICAL WAVES AND TROPICAL LOWS... 

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED N OF 09N ALONG 82W AND IS ENHANCING 
CONVECTION OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. 

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 09N101W TO 16N100W WITH A LARGE 
AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG UNORGANIZED 
CONVECTION OBSERVED WITHIN 240 NM OF WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N110W TO 20N109W WITH A 1008 MB 
LOW PRESSURE ANALYZED ALONG THE WAVE AT 15N110W. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING W AT ABOUT 10 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OF WAVE AXIS.

1 1010 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED AT 16.5N127W WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 240 NM OVER 
THE N QUADRANT OF THE LOW.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS W FROM THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA 
AT 09N76W ACROSS NORTHERN PANAMA TO ACROSS WESTERN PANAMA TO THE 
COAST OF COSTA RICA AT 08N83W TO 08N95W...THEN TURNS NW TO AN 
EMBEDDED LOW PRESSURE AT 15N110W...THEN TURNS SW TO 11N121W. 
EXCEPT AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVES AND 
TROPICAL LOWS...ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED 
N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 
05N81W TO 06N100W TO 11N104W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 30 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10N87W TO 13N93W...AND WITHIN 120 NM 
OF LINE FROM 09N110W TO 08N139W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A N TO S ORIENTATED TROUGH CONTINUES OVER  
THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED AND 
NOW SUPPORTS S-SW 15-20 KT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 31N. LITTLE 
CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT THEN THE GRADIENT WILL FURTHER 
WEAKEN.
  
THE REMNANT TROUGH OF LINDA IS ANALYZED FROM 30N118W TO 26N122W 
ACCOMPANIED BY A SW-W-NW 5-10 KT WIND SHIFT. EXPECT THIS 
WEAKENING TROUGH TO MOVE E AND INLAND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA 
PENINSULA ON WED. 

LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL CONTINUES ACROSS 
THE TROPICS S OF A LINE FROM 00N128W TO 05N120W TO 03.4S107W 
WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7-9 FT PRIMARILY DUE TO MIXED S AND SW 
SWELL. THE SOUTHERLY SWELLS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH WED.
 
$$
NELSON