000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150927
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC TUE SEP 15 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.               

...TROPICAL WAVES... 

A TROPICAL WAVE IS RELOCATED FARTHER EAST AND NOW EXTENDS FROM 
15N99W TO 09N100W. 700 MB GFS STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN 
INVERTED TROUGH BETWEEN 97W AND 100W WHICH CORRELATES WELL WITH 
THE WAVE LOCATION. IN ADDITION...THE WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH AN 
AREA OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AS NOTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE 
WATER SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
OBSERVED ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS MAINLY FROM 12N 
TO 16N BETWEEN 98W AND 101W.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 19N108W TO 1008 MB LOW PRES NEAR 
15N109W TO 11N109W. THE WAVE IS EVIDENT IN THE LATEST GFS 700 MB 
STREAMLINES AND 850 VORTICITY ANALYSIS AS WELL AS IN TOTAL 
PRECIPITABLE WATER SATELLITE IMAGERY WHERE A BULGE OF DEEP 
TROPICAL MOISTURE IS SEEN. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR 
THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE AXIS MAINLY FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 
107W AND 110W. ONLY A ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THE 
LOW CENTER. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW 
TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHILE IT MOVES GENERALLY 
NW AT 5-10 KT.  
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 08N95W TO A LOW 
PRES NEAR 15N109W TO 11N120W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 111W AND 116W... 
AND FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 119W AND 123W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N114W TO 30N115W 
SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG S-SW WINDS JUST TO THE SE OF THE 
TROUGH IN THE GULF N OF 30N. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO 
PERSIST THROUGH THIS MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING AS THE TROUGH 
WEAKENS AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES LATER TODAY.

LOW PRES OF 1010 MB...THE REMNANT LOW OF LINDA...IS CENTERED 
NEAR 29N119W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 30N119W TO  
THE LOW CENTER TO 27N121W. WINDS NEAR THE LOW AND TROUGH HAVE 
DIMINISHED TO 5-10 KT AND SEAS ARE 4-6 FT. THE LOW IS FORECAST 
TO SPIN DOWN AND OPEN INTO A TROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING AS IT 
DRIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. AS THE 
REMNANT LOW OF LINDA WEAKENS AND DRIFTS E...RIDGING WILL FILL IN 
AND EXPAND ACROSS THE N WATERS. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE 
WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE WEST-CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST 
REGION BY WED.

A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 16N127W WITH A TROUGH THAT 
EXTENDS FROM 19N127W TO THE LOW CENTER. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO 
FLARE UP NEAR THE LOW CENTER. CURRENTLY...SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 15.5N TO 18.5N BETWEEN 126W 
AND 128.5W. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT WESTWARD WHILE 
DISSIPATING OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. 

LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO 
PROPAGATE TO THE NE ACROSS THE WATERS E OF 115W TODAY AND 
TONIGHT...REACHING THE COASTLINE OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND 
MEXICO...INCLUDING THE ENTRANCE OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA LATE 
TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. THIS SWELL EVENT COULD BRING ROUGH 
SURF CONDITIONS TO THOSE COASTS. HOWEVER...SEAS OF 8 FT OR 
GREATER ARE ONLY EXPECTED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL WATERS... 
PARTICULARLY S OF THE EQUATOR AND W OF 115W DURING THE NEXT 6-12 
HOURS.  

$$
GR