000
AXPZ20 KNHC 142132
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC MON SEP 14 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.               

...TROPICAL WAVES... 

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N97W TO 1008 MB LOW PRES NEAR 
09N98.5W MOVING W AT AROUND 10 KT. 700 MB GFS STREAMLINE 
ANALYSIS SHOWS AN INVERTED TROUGH BETWEEN 96W AND 102W WHICH 
CORRELATES WELL WITH THE WAVE LOCATION. SSMI TPW SHOWS HIGH 
MOISTURE IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE AND 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 93W AND 
97W...AND WITHIN 360 NM IN THE S QUADRANT OF THE LOW. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 98W AND 101W. 

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N108W TO 1008 MB LOW PRES NEAR 
14N108W TO 10N109W MOVING W AT AROUND 10 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES 
WITH 700 MB TROUGHING AND AN 850 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM FROM THE 
GFS. SSMI TPW SHOWS HIGH MOISTURE IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 16N  
TO 20N BETWEEN 104W AND 110W...AND ALSO WITHIN 300 NM IN THE S 
QUADRANT OF THE LOW.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO LOW PRES NEAR 
09N98.5W TO LOW PRES NEAR 14N108W TO 10N117W TO 06N130W. NO ITCZ 
AXIS IS PRESENT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM SE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 117W AND 129W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 08N W OF 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA 
PENINSULA FROM 32N115W TO NEAR 30N115W. THIS TROUGHING IS 
SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG S-SW WINDS JUST TO THE E OF THE 
TROUGH IN THE GULF N OF 30N. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO 
PERSIST INTO EARLY TUE BEFORE DIMINISHING AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS 
AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES LATER ON TUE.

LOW PRES OF 1011 MB...THE REMNANT LOW OF LINDA...IS CENTERED 
NEAR 28N123W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 30N120W TO  
THE LOW CENTER TO 26N125W. WINDS NEAR THE LOW AND TROUGH HAVE 
DIMINISHED TO 5-10 KT AND SEAS ARE 4-6 FT. THE LOW IS FORECAST 
TO SPIN DOWN AND OPEN INTO A TROUGH TONIGHT AS IS DRIFTS 
EASTWARD TOWARD THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 15N127W WITH A TROUGH THAT 
EXTENDS FROM 18N123W TO THE LOW CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM IN THE SW QUADRANT. THIS LOW WILL 
DRIFT NW OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH PERIODIC BURSTS OF 
CONVECTION EXPECTED. 

CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL HAS BREACHED THE EQUATOR WITH 
SEAS OF 8-9 FT REACHING TO 01N BETWEEN 113W AND 125W. THIS SWELL 
WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE TO THE NE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS 
HOWEVER SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER WILL NOT MAKE MUCH FORWARD 
PROGRESS.

$$
LEWITSKY