000 AXPZ20 KNHC 132123 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SUN SEP 13 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N88W TO 09N88W MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT. GFS 700 MB STREAMLINES INDICATE BROAD TROUGHING BETWEEN 88W AND 92W CORRELATING WELL WITH THE WAVE LOCATION ALONG WITH A 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE WAVE. ISOLATED CONVECTION AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ACCOMPANY THE WAVE. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N104W TO 10N103W MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS SUBTLY DEPICTED ON THE GFS 700 MB STREAMLINES BETWEEN 101W AND 107W WITH 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM NOTED FROM 13N TO 16N NEAR THE WAVE AXIS. ISOLATED CONVECTION AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ACCOMPANY THE WAVE...WITH DEEPER CONVECTION NOTED JUST SE OF THE WAVE ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N113W TO 11N114W MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS WELL DEPICTED BY GFS 700 MB STREAMLINES WITH TROUGHING EVIDENT BETWEEN 110W AND 115W. ISOLATED CONVECTION AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ACCOMPANYING THE WAVE. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N80W TO 09N95W TO LOW PRES NEAR 14N110W TO 12N116W TO LOW PRES NEAR 15N123W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM LOW PRES NEAR 15N123W TO 10N130W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 03N E OF 80W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF PANAMA...AND ALSO WITHIN 240 NM SW OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 93W AND 104W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM NE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 105W AND 110W. ...DISCUSSION... LOW PRES OF 1010 MB...THE REMNANT LOW OF LINDA...IS CENTERED NEAR 27.5N123.5W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 30N122W TO THE LOW TO 21N126W. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED 15-20 KT WINDS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LOW AND TROUGH...WITH 5-10 KT WINDS ON THE EASTERN SIDE. SEAS ARE UP TO 5-7 FT NEAR THE LOW IN MIXED SWELL. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO SPIN DOWN AND COMPLETELY OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH BY LATE MON INTO EARLY TUE AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD CLOSER TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE LATEST PRES PATTERN INDICATES BROAD 1032 MB HIGH PRES WELL N- NW OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS NEAR 40N144W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING TO THE SE-S THROUGH 32N140W TO 20N126W. MEANWHILE A WEAK 1013 MB HIGH REMAINS OVER THE NE WATERS TO THE SE OF THE REMNANT LOW OF LINDA NEAR 25N118W. AS LINDA WEAKENS AND DRIFTS E EARLY THIS WEEK RIDGING WILL FILL IN AND EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK SURFACE LOW OF 1010 MB IS NEAR 14.5N123.5W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO 19N123W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THE LOW AND TROUGH. THESE FEATURES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY W OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH PERIODIC CONVECTION BEING GENERATED DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE TO HIGH MOISTURE AS NOTED IN THE LATEST SSMI TPW SATELLITE IMAGERY. A BROAD AND WEAK 1010 MB SURFACE LOW IS NEAR 13.5N110W WITH DISORGANIZED ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW. SOME SLOW AND MINOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY NW AT 5-10 KT. SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 00N AND W OF 115W ARE RUNNING GENERALLY 5-7 FT IN A BROAD MIX OF SWELL WHILE CROSS EQUATORIAL 4-7 FT S SWELL DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REGION. ADDITIONAL PULSES OF CROSS EQUATORIAL SE AND SW SWELL WILL REACH THE FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL WATERS THIS EVENING BUILDING SEAS TO 8-10 FT NEAR 07N117W BY MON AFTERNOON...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE COVERAGE OF SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO SWING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW EARLY MON WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT IN THE FAR NORTHERN GULF BY MON EVENING CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. $$ LEWITSKY