000 AXPZ20 KNHC 131624 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1625 UTC SUN SEP 13 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N87W TO 09N87W...MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT. GFS 700 MB STREAMLINES INDICATE TROUGHING BETWEEN 83W AND 92W...CORRELATING WELL WITH THE WAVE LOCATION. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N TO 13N BETWEEN 87W AND 89W...WHICH ALSO MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH DIURNAL INFLUENCES FROM CENTRAL AMERICA. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N102W TO 12N101W MOVING W AT AROUND 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS SUBTLY DEPICTED ON THE GFS 700 MB STREAMLINES WITH A TROUGH EVIDENT BETWEEN 100W AND 105W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 100W AND 104W...AND ALONG THE INTERSECTION OF THE WAVE WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N AND 12N BETWEEN 101W AND 105W. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N113W TO 11N113W...MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS WELL DEPICTED BY GFS 700 MB STREAMLINES WITH TROUGHING EVIDENT BETWEEN 110W AND 115W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 112W AND 116W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL AMERICA COAST NEAR 09N84W TO A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 09N95W TO 13N107W TO 10N117W TO 07N127W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 07N127W TO 09N134W TO BEYOND 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 86W AND 91W...FROM 04N TO 09N BETWEEN 117W AND 123W...AND FROM 05N TO 09N W OF 134W. ...DISCUSSION... LOW PRES OF 1010 MB...THE REMNANT LOW OF LINDA...IS CENTERED NEAR 27N123W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING S OF THE LOW TO NEAR 22N126W. WINDS UP TO 20 KT AND SEAS OF 6 TO 7 FT IN MIXED SWELL ARE NOTED WITHIN 200 NM NW OF THE LOW CENTER. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND IS FORECAST TO OPEN INTO A TROUGH BY 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS EAST OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. A SURFACE HIGH OF 1032 MB LOCATED WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 42N145W EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST REGION. A WEAK 1013 MB SURFACE HIGH REMAINS OVER THE NE WATERS AND TO THE SE OF THE REMNANT LOW OF LINDA NEAR 23.5N118W. THIS SYSTEM EXTENDS A RIDGE TO NEAR 20N110W. AS LINDA WEAKENS AND DRIFTS EAST EARLY THIS WEEK...RIDGING WILL FILL IN AND EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK SURFACE LOW OF 1009 MB IS NEAR 15N122.5W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO 17N122W. CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION NOW WITHIN 75 NM NW OF THE LOW CENTER. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY W OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH PERIODIC CONVECTION BEING GENERATED DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE TO HIGH MOISTURE...AS NOTED IN SSMI TPW IMAGERY. A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW IS NEAR 13N109W GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 107W AND 111W. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY NW AT 5-10 KT. AN AREA OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 21N TO 26N BETWEEN 107W AND 111W IN THE VICINITY OF MID LEVEL INVERTED TROUGHING AROUND THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS CONVECTION MAY PERSIST AS THE TROUGHING ALOFT IS FORECAST BY THE GFS TO DRIFT VERY SLOWLY TO THE NW OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH TUES. A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 09.5N95W WITH CLUSTERS OF MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 100 TO 250 NM TO THE S AND SW OF THE LOW CENTER. THIS LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 00N AND W OF 115W ARE RUNNING GENERALLY 5-7 FT IN A BROAD MIX OF SWELL WHILE CROSS EQUATORIAL 4-7 FT S SWELL DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REGION. ADDITIONAL PULSES OF CROSS EQUATORIAL SE AND SW SWELL WILL REACH THE FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL WATERS SUN NIGHT...BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 9 FT S OF THE EQUATOR W OF 115W BY MON NIGHT...THEN SUBSIDING TO 8 FT OR LESS BY TUE AFTERNOON. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO SWING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT IN THE FAR NORTHERN GULF BY MON AFTERNOON INTO MON NIGHT. $$ LATTO