000 AXPZ20 KNHC 122123 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SAT SEP 12 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM EASTERN NICARAGUA NEAR 15N83W TO THE NE PACIFIC S OF THE COAST OF COSTA RICA NEAR 06N84W MOVING W AT AROUND 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE IS PRETTY WELL DEPICTED IN THE LATEST GFS 700 MB STREAMLINES AND 850 VORTICITY ANALYSIS. SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE IS ALSO EVIDENT ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER SATELLITE IMAGERY. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N100W TO 10N99W MOVING W AT AROUND 15 KT. THIS WAVE HAS DECOUPLED FROM 1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR 09N95.5W. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS LOCATED SW OF THE WAVE AXIS. THIS SYSTEM IS PRETTY WELL DEPICTED IN THE LATEST GFS 700 MB STREAMLINES AND 850 VORTICITY ANALYSIS. SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE IS ALSO EVIDENT ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER SATELLITE IMAGERY. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N110W TO 1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR 12N110.5W. THE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRES WILL MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE WAVE IS EVIDENT IN THE LATEST GFS 700 MB STREAMLINES AND 850 VORTICITY ANALYSIS AS WELL AS IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER SATELLITE IMAGERY. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO LOW PRES NEAR 09N95.5W TO LOW PRES NEAR 12N110.5W. NO ITCZ AXIS IS PRESENT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM SW OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 85W AND 88W...WITHIN 150 NM SW OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 90W AND 103W...AND ALSO WITHIN 210 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 107W AND 110W. ...DISCUSSION... LOW PRES OF 1008 MB...THE REMNANT LOW OF LINDA...IS CENTERED NEAR 27.5N122.5W. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 20 KT OR LESS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ON THE NW SIDE OF THE LOW WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT IS THE MOST TIGHT. THESE WINDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SEAS TO 8 FT IN MIXED SWELL IN THE NW SEMICIRCLE HOWEVER THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY 24 HOURS. BY 48 HOURS...THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO AN OPEN TROUGH. SURFACE HIGH PRES OF 1029 MB WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS NEAR 43N143W EXTENDS A RIDGE TO THE S-SE THROUGH 32N136W TO 15N131W. WEAK LOW PRES OF 1009 MB IS NEAR 15N120W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO 19N120W. A RECENT ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED 15-20 KT WINDS ON THE N SIDE OF THE LOW WHERE ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ALSO PRESENT. THE LOW WILL MOVE W AT AROUND 10-15 KT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ANOTHER 1009 MB LOW IS TO THE E NEAR 12N110.5W. A RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWED 15-20 KT WINDS ON THE N SIDE OF THE LOW WITH SCATTERED TSTMS AS DESCRIBED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH SECTION ABOVE. THIS LOW WILL MOVE W AT AROUND 5- 10 KT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A THIRD 1009 MB LOW IS LOCATED TO THE E EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 09N95.5W. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED 5-10 KT WINDS N OF THE LOW WITH 10-15 KT SW FLOW S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS W OF 120W ARE RUNNING GENERALLY 5-7 FT IN A BROAD MIX OF SWELL WHILE CROSS EQUATORIAL 4-7 FT SW SWELL DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REGION. ADDITIONAL PULSES OF CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL WILL REACH THE FAR SOUTH- CENTRAL WATERS BY SUN NIGHT...REACHING TO 03N BETWEEN 117W AND 124W BY MON AFTERNOON WITH SEAS OF 8-10 FT. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO SWING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT IN THE FAR NORTHERN GULF BY MON AFTERNOON. $$ LEWITSKY