000
AXPZ20 KNHC 121611
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC SAT SEP 12 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.               

...TROPICAL WAVES... 

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 08N84W THROUGH WESTERN PANAMA. THIS 
IS IN AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE ON THE EAST END OF AN UPPER 
ANTICYCLONE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO...AND NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION 
IS OBSERVED. THIS SYSTEM IS PRETTY WELL DEPICTED IN THE LATEST 
GFS 700 MB STREAMLINES AND 850 VORTICITY ANALYSIS. SOME TROPICAL 
MOISTURE IS ALSO EVIDENT ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER SATELLITE 
IMAGERY.

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 98W N OF 10N. THIS IS DECOUPLING FROM A 
1009 MB LOW PRES AREA NEAR 09N94W ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH. 
CONVECTION IS LIMITED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WAVE. THIS SYSTEM 
IS PRETTY WELL DEPICTED IN THE LATEST GFS 700 MB STREAMLINES AND 
850 VORTICITY ANALYSIS. SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE IS ALSO EVIDENT 
ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER SATELLITE IMAGERY.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N108W TO A 1009 MB LOW PRES ALSO 
EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS 
NOTED WITH THIS WAVE. THE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRES WILL MOVE 
SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 06N85W TO LOW 
PRES NEAR 12N108W 1009 MB. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS OBSERVED WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 90W AND 102W.

...DISCUSSION...

LOW PRES OF 1006 MB...THE REMNANT LOW OF LINDA...IS CENTERED 
NEAR 27.5N122W. WINDS OF 20-25 KT WAS NOTED IN AN EARLIER 
SCATTEROMETER DATA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS LOW. WINDS AND SEAS 
ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING WITH THIS LOW AS IT MOVES INTO COOLER 
WATERS AND LOSES DEFINITION. IT MAY OPEN INTO A TROUGH BY 48 
HOURS OF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

LONG PERIOD MIX SWELL RELATED TO LINDA CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO 
THE NORTHERN COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE...ALTHOUGH A PAIR OF 
ALTIMETER PASSES INDICATES THIS HAS SUBSIDED TO LESS THAN 7 FT.

EARLIER STRONG CONVECTION MOVING OFF THE N CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF 
MEXICO AND THE COAST OF SINALOA INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA IS STARTING TO DIMINISH. 
 
FARTHER SOUTH...A WEAK LOW PRES OF 1009 MB IS NEAR 15N120W WITH 
A TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO NEAR 18N120W. THE TROUGH 
COINCIDES WITH A BULGE OF MOISTURE ON THE TPW PRODUCT AND WILL 
CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 

SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS W OF 120W ARE RUNNING GENERALLY 5-7 FT IN 
A BROAD MIX OF SWELL WHILE CROSS EQUATORIAL 4-7 FT SW SWELL 
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REGION. ADDITIONAL 
PULSES OF CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL WILL REACH THE FAR SOUTH- 
CENTRAL WATERS BY SUN NIGHT.

$$
CHRISTENSEN