000 AXPZ20 KNHC 120925 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SAT SEP 12 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N96W TO A 1010 MB LOW PRES LOCATED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 10N96W. CONVECTION IS LIMITED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WAVE. THIS SYSTEM IS PRETTY WELL DEPICTED IN THE LATEST GFS 700 MB STREAMLINES AND 850 VORTICITY ANALYSIS. SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE IS ALSO EVIDENT ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER SATELLITE IMAGERY. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N107W TO A 1009 MB LOW PRES ALSO EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 12N108W. CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WAVE DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS AND CURRENTLY...A SMALL CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN AROUND 90 NM NE QUADRANT OF THE LOW CENTER. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TPW ANIMATION...AND IS ALSO WELL DEFINED IN THE LATEST GFS 700 MB STREAMLINES AND 850 VORTICITY ANALYSIS. THE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRES WILL MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N90W TO 12N104W TO 11N110W TO 12N116W. NO ITCZ AXIS IS PRESENT. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 93W AND 96W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 93W AND 99W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED FROM 04N TO 07N BETWEEN 88W AND 91W. ...DISCUSSION... LOW PRES OF 1006 MB...THE REMNANT LOW OF LINDA...IS CENTERED NEAR 27.5N121.5W. WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE STILL NOTED PER SCATTEROMETER DATA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS LOW WITHIN AROUND 150 NM IN THE N SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS OF 8-11 FT. SWELL OF 8 FT OR GREATER RELATED TO THIS SYSTEM ALSO COVERS THE FORECAST WATERS N OF 27N BETWEEN 119W AND 125W. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY LATE TODAY. THE REMNANT LOW OF LINDA IS FORECAST BY THE COMPUTER MODELS TO MEANDER OVER THE N WATERS...PARTICULARLY N OF 27N BETWEEN 120W AND 125W THROUGH AT LEAST MON. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT LOW OF LINDA CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND PORTIONS OF THE SW U.S. WHICH MAY TRIGGER SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY TODAY. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED BETWEEN THE COAST OF THE STATE OF SINALOA AND BAJA CALIFORNIA AND COVERS ROUGHLY THE AREA FROM 22N TO 25N BETWEEN 106W AND 108.5W. WINDS AND SEAS COULD BE HIGHER NEAR THE TSTMS. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IN HELPING TO INDUCE THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. SWELLS FROM LINDA WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE TOWARD THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...AS WELL AS TOWARD THE U.S. SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTLINE. THESE SWELLS WILL RESULT IN A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND DANGEROUS HIGH SURF THROUGH TODAY...GRADUALLY SUBSIDING INTO SUN. PLEASE CONSULT YOUR LOCAL NWS WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS ON THESE CONDITIONS. A 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED WELL N OF THE FORECAST WATERS NEAR 41N141W EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA TO NEAR 17N125W. A WEAK 1014 MB HIGH PRES HAS DEVELOPED W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND IS LOCATED NEAR 24N114W EXTENDING A RIDGE TO 19N114W. THE REMNANT LOW OF LINDA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN BETWEEN THE RIDGES UNTIL DISSIPATION OCCURS LATE MON INTO TUE. FARTHER SOUTH...A WEAK LOW PRES OF 1010 MB IS NEAR 15N118W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO NEAR 19N117W. A RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWS THE WIND SHIFT RELATED TO THE TROUGH AXIS. THE TROUGH COINCIDES WITH A BULGE OF MOISTURE ON THE TPW PRODUCT AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS W OF 120W ARE RUNNING GENERALLY 5-7 FT IN A BROAD MIX OF SWELL WHILE CROSS EQUATORIAL 4-7 FT SW SWELL DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REGION. ADDITIONAL PULSES OF CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL WILL REACH THE FAR SOUTH- CENTRAL WATERS BY SUN NIGHT. $$ GR