000
AXPZ20 KNHC 101608
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC THU SEP 10 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.               
   
...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM LINDA WAS NEAR 26.0N 118.6W 1002 MB AT 1500 UTC 
SEP 10 MOVING NW OR 320 DEG AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 
KT GUSTS 45 KT. CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO DIMINISH WITH LINDA. 
AT PRESENT...LINDA IS A LARGE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH ONLY 
SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 300 NM ACROSS 
THE NE QUADRANT...AND MAINLY WELL REMOVED FROM THE EXPOSED 
CENTRAL CIRCULATION. LINDA IS ENCOUNTERING STRONG SW UPPER LEVEL 
WIND SHEAR AND MOVING ACROSS COOL WATERS...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO 
LEAD TO CONTINUED WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. A SLOW NW MOTION 
TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE W-NW TONIGHT AND FRI AS LINDA 
GRADUALLY SPINS DOWN AS A NON TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE CENTER. 
LARGE SOUTHERLY SWELLS FROM LINDA CONTINUE TO BATTER THE PACIFIC 
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE...AND MOVED INTO SOUTHERN 
CALIFORNIA WATERS OVERNIGHT WHERE THEY HAVE PEAKED. THIS STRONG 
SWELL ENERGY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THESE AREAS AND OFFSHORE 
WATERS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY 
SUBSIDE...PRODUCING LARGE AND DANGEROUS SURF ALONG THE COASTS 
AND REEFS...AND GENERATING STRONG LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS. 
SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES... 

TROPICAL WAVE WAS INVOF 93W N OF 05N MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. 
SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION DESCRIBED BELOW 
AND ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WAS OCCURRING WITHIN ABOUT 180 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF AXIS...AND WAS AFFECTING COASTAL PORTIONS OF 
GUATEMALA. THIS WAVE WILL SHIFT W-NW AND ACCELERATE MODESTLY 
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH CONVECTION ACROSS N PORTIONS 
BRUSHING ALONG PACIFIC COASTS AND COASTAL WATERS OF MEXICO.

A TROPICAL WAVE HAS FORMED DURING THE PAST 48 HOURS INVOF 103-
104W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STRONG 
CONVECTION DESCRIBED BELOW WAS OCCURRING WITHIN 240 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF AXIS. THIS WAVE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY WWD DURING THE NEXT 48 
HOURS AND BEGIN TO GRADUALLY BECOME LESS ACTIVE WITH CONVECTION 
ON FRI.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N75W TO 11N88W TO 08.5N91W TO 
11N106W...WHERE IT REMAINS FRACTURED...THEN RESUMES FROM 15N118W 
TO BEYOND 09N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FROM 04N TO 
14N BETWEEN 76W AND 95W. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF 
STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN AREA BOUNDED BY POINTS FROM 
07N100W TO 19N104W TO 03N116W TO 07N100W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS 
STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 270 NM S OF AXIS W OF 120W. 
SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS 
NOTED ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST AND EXTENDS 75 NM INLAND AND 90 NM 
OFFSHORE FROM 20N TO 25N.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 42N139W EXTENDS A RIDGE S-SW TO 
JUST E OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...WHICH DOMINATES THE LOW LEVEL 
WIND FLOW ACROSS NW AND W PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO THE W OF 
LINDA. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE TRADEWINDS PREVAIL THIS 
MORNING N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND W OF LINDA. SEAS ACROSS THIS 
AREA ARE RUNNING GENERALLY 5 TO 7 FT IN A BROAD MIX OF 
SWELL...INCLUDING E TO SE SWELL OCCURRING N OF 20N GENERATED BY 
LINDA. LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THESE CONDITIONS ARE 
EXPECTED THROUGH SAT...EXCEPT FOR WINDS BACKING N TO NE TO THE W 
OF THE REMNANTS OF LINDA.
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS VERY ACTIVE CONVECTIVELY THIS 
MORNING...AND GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE W OF 
110W THROUGH FRI BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING.

$$
STRIPLING