000
AXPZ20 KNHC 092112 RRA
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC WED SEP 09 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2030 UTC.               
   
...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM LINDA CENTERED NEAR 24.4N 117.3W AT 09/2100 UTC 
OR 235 NM SSW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO MOVING NW AT 9 KT. 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WIND SPEED IS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST 
/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR  
MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM IN 
THE N SEMICIRCLE AND 45 NM IN THE S SEMICIRCLE. LINDA IS 
FORECAST TO QUICKLY WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY THU 
AFTERNOON...AND THEN TO A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW LATE THU 
NIGHT...THEN IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY MON AFTERNOON. VERY 
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES WILL BE 
POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE AREAS. LARGE AND DANGEROUS SWELLS 
GENERATED BY LINDA WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN  
SHORE OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT 48 
HOURS...AND EVENTUALLY IMPACTING THE U.S. SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA 
COAST LATER THIS WEEK. THESE SWELLS ARE ALSO STILL SPREADING 
INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO 
SUBSIDE THERE TONIGHT AS LINDA MOVES NORTHWARD OFFSHORE OF    
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. REFER TO THE LAST NHC FORECAST/ 
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR 
ADDITIONAL DETAILS. 

...TROPICAL WAVES... 

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N90W TO 07N91W MOVING W AT AROUND 
10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 300 
NM W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE AXIS. 700 MB TROUGHING IS EVIDENT 
BETWEEN 87W-93W WHILE 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS FROM 
05N-10N. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW PRES TO 
DEVELOP ALONG THIS WAVE LATER THIS WEEK. SOUTHWESTERLY MONSOONAL 
FLOW IS INCREASING TO THE S-SW OF THE WAVE AXIS S OF THE MONSOON 
TROUGH WHERE WINDS ARE NOW BLOWING 20-25 KT...AND SEAS HAVE THUS 
BEEN BUILDING TO 8-9 FT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS THE 
WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 08N90W TO 11N106W 
THEN RESUMES FROM 13N115W TO 12N130W TO 08N140W. NO ITCZ AXIS IS 
PRESENT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 300 
NM S OF THE AXIS E OF 88W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 98W AND 105W...AND 
ALSO WITHIN 270 NM S OF THE AXIS W OF 115W. 

LINDA HAS MOVED SUFFICIENTLY NORTHWARD OUT OF THE TROPICS AND 
COMPLETELY SEVERED FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH. THE 
MONSOON TROUGH HERE HAS BEGUN TO RE-ESTABLISH ACROSS THE 
TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC...WHERE CONVECTION DESCRIBED ABOVE HAS 
BECOME VERY ACTIVE. COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT 
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN VERY ACTIVE NEAR AND S OF THE MONSOON 
TROUGH W OF 100W THROUGH THU.

...DISCUSSION...

MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH N TO NE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE 
REMAINDER OF THE AREA W OF OF LINDA...GENERATED BY ANTICYCLONIC 
FLOW AROUND A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 40N139W. SEAS ACROSS NW 
PORTIONS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING 5-7 FT IN MIXED SWELL AND WILL 
SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$ 
LEWITSKY