000
AXPZ20 KNHC 082110
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC TUE SEP 08 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.               
   
...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE LINDA CENTERED NEAR 21.9N 114.8W AT 08/2100 UTC OR 278 
NM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVING NW AT 12 
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 951 MB. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. SEE LATEST 
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM OF THE CENTER...EXCEPT 180 
NM IN THE W QUADRANT. OUTER RAINBANDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE 
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA 
WITH ADDITIONAL OUTER MOISTURE EXTENDING INLAND TO THE W SLOPES 
OF THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTALES. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH FLASH 
FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE AREAS. 
LARGE AND DANGEROUS SWELLS GENERATED BY LINDA WILL SPREAD 
NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA 
PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND EVENTUALLY IMPACTING 
THE U.S. SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST LATER THIS WEEK. THESE SWELLS 
ARE ALSO SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. 

LINDA IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE AND 
HAS LIKELY REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY AS IT IS FORECAST TO 
RAPIDLY WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM BY 36 HOURS...AND THEN TO A 
POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW BY 72 HOURS. A LARGE SWATH OF 20-33 KT 
WINDS EXTENDS WELL AWAY FROM LINDA...ESPECIALLY IN THE SE 
QUADRANT WITH SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER COVERING THE AREA FROM 07N 
TO 27N BETWEEN 104W AND 122W...AND ALSO FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 
122W AND 132W.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 10N90W TO 10N106W 
THEN RESUMES FROM 12N118W TO 09N130W TO 06N140W. NO ITCZ AXIS IS 
PRESENT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 79W AND 93W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 90W 
AND 104W...WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 95W AND 106W... 
AND WITHIN 240-300 NM S OF A LINE FROM 21N110W TO 11N120W TO 
07N140W.

...DISCUSSION...

MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH N TO NE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE 
REMAINDER OF THE AREA W OF OF LINDA...GENERATED BY ANTICYCLONIC 
FLOW TO THE SE OF A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 40N142W. 
CORRESPONDING SEAS ACROSS NW PORTIONS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING     
5-8 FT IN MIXED NE SWELL AND WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT THIS 
EVENING.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL DOMINATES MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF  
THE AREA AND CONTINUES TO SUBSIDE. THE HIGHEST SEAS ARE JUST S 
OF THE EQUATOR AND SW OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS...UP TO 8 FT.

$$
LEWITSKY