000 AXPZ20 KNHC 262201 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC WED AUG 26 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO IS CENTERED NEAR 11.9N 136.2W AT 26/2100 UTC MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT IGNACIO IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED WITH CURVED BANDING FEATURES CLEARLY NOTED WRAPPING INTO A CENTRAL DENSE TYPE FEATURE. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG IS SEEN ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE NW SEMICIRCLE. LATEST NHC ADVISORY FORECASTS IGNACIO TO REACH HURRICANE INTENSITY LATE TONIGHT NEAR 12.3N137.6W. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA BY LATE THU AFTERNOON OR THU EVENING. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. RECENTLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E IS CENTERED NEAR 10.8N 113.3W OR ABOUT 752 NM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AT 26/2100 UTC MOVING W OR 280 DEG AT 17 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES IS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN OF THE DEPRESSION APPEARS ELONGATED N TO S WITH SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED IN A BAND WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE FROM 12N115W TO 14N115W TO 15N113W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS PRESENT ELSEWHERE FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 111W-116W...AND FROM 08N-11N BETWEEN 113W-116W. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY INTO A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM BY THU AFTERNOON NEAR 12N118W...AND CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS IN A GENERAL WESTWARD DIRECTION THROUGH FRI. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 05N83W TO 08N93W TO 08N102W TO 10N108W TO 11N113W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM N OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 94W-98W...AND WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 82W-86W. ...DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 34N129W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 20N112W. OUTSIDE OF TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E...GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE NOTED ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. A WEAK COLD JUST NW OF THE AREA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FAR NW WATERS FRI WHILE DISSIPATING. LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL WITH PERIODS IN THE 17-18 SECOND RANGE WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE S CENTRAL WATERS...AND TOWARDS THE MEXICAN AND CENTRAL AMERICAN COASTS THROUGH THU WITH THE POSSIBILITY HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS RESULTING ALONG THESE COASTS. A DIFFLUENT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT S OF AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE NEAR 20N134W IS SUPPORTING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 07N-10N BETWEEN 129W-133W...AND ALSO FROM 06N-08N BETWEEN 125W-129W. GAP WINDS... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N-NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE FORECAST TO AGAIN FUNNEL THROUGH THE GULF LATE TONIGHT...AND DIMINISH TO 15- 20 KT THU AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS WILL AGAIN FUNNEL ACROSS THE GULF LATE THU NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING ON FRI AFTERNOON. RESULTING SEAS WILL START AT 8 FT...AND BUILD TO 8-10 FT LATE THU NIGHT THEN SUBSIDE TO 8-9 FT FRI. $$ AGUIRRE