000 AXPZ20 KNHC 252202 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC TUE AUG 25 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO...FORMERLY TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E...IS CENTERED NEAR 13.0N 133.1W AT 25/2100 UTC IS MOVING W OR 265 DEG AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. IGNACIO IS UNDER ESE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE EXPOSED ON LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE SW QUADRANT...AND WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE NW QUADRANT. IGNACIO IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY TO A MINIMAL HURRICANE AS IT CONTINUES IN A WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN MORE IN A W-NW MOTION AFTERWARDS. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 106W FROM 08N-15N. A 1008 MB LOW PRES CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 10N. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING W-WNW NEAR 12 KT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CLOUDS AND CONVECTION ARE INCREASING THIS SYSTEM. IN ADDITION...THE CONVECTION DEPICTED AS THE SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG TYPE INTENSITY IS WITHIN 120 NM SW AND NW QUADRANTS OF THE LOW...AND FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 106W-112W. THE CONVECTION IS ALSO FORMING INTO BROKEN BANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW AND THERE IS CURRENTLY A MEDIUM CHANCE THAT THIS LOW WILL DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM0 8N80W TO 08N93W TO 10N102W TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N106W...AND TO 11N114W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 91W-94W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 80W-83W...AND BETWEEN 85W-90W. ...DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVELS... AN ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 18N125W. THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY S OF ABOUT 17N. THIS FLOW IS INDUCING SHEAR OVER IGNACIO. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 130W. OVER THE EASTERN PORTION...A SMALL ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 14N100W WITH A RIDGE WESTWARD TO NEAR 110W. SURFACE... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 37N131W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 19N110W. OUTSIDE OF TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO...GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE NOTED ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. A DISSIPATING 1016 MB LOW IS OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 32N139W. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE TO OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL WATERS...REACHING THE MEXICAN AND CENTRAL AMERICAN COASTS EARLY WED. GAP WINDS... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO START UP AGAIN ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC ...AND ACROSS THE GULF LATE TONIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL BEGIN IN THE RANGE OF 20-25 KT AND REACH TO 30 KT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WED BEFORE DIMINISHING DURING WED AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS THEN MATERIALIZE AGAIN LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU. ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL BUILD TO THE 9-10 FT RANGE EACH MORNING. $$ AGUIRRE