000
AXPZ20 KNHC 251525 CCA
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC TUE AUG 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...   

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E CENTERED NEAR 13.2N 132.4W AT 
25/1500 UTC IS MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMAL 
CENTRAL PRES IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT 
GUSTING TO 40 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS 
NOTED WITHIN 150 NM W SEMICIRCLE. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS.

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS FROM 16N105W TO 08N106W WITH LOW 
PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 09N106W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 06N TO 12N 
BETWEEN 100W AND 108W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE 
FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW AND THERE IS CURRENTLY A MEDIUM 
CHANCE THAT THIS LOW WILL DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N83W TO 09N87W TO 07N93W TO 
09.5N98W TO 09N104W TO 07N110W TO 12N120W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM S OF TROUGH 
BETWEEN 87W TO 99W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM OF TROUGH BETWEEN 100W AND 
105W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED 
WITHIN 120 NM OF TROUGH BETWEEN 109W AND 111W.  

...DISCUSSION... 

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 39N133W EXTENDS RIDGE 
SE TO NEAR 19N110W. OUTSIDE OF TD TWELVE-E...GENTLE TO MODERATE 
TRADE WINDS ARE NOTED ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. A 
TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA... 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF T.D. ELEVEN. THE TROUGH IS 
EXPECTED TO DRIFT WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE 
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL WATERS TODAY...REACHING 
THE MEXICAN AND CENTRAL AMERICAN COASTS EARLY WED. 
 
GAP WINDS...                                                     

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL 
PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF OF GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...REACHING NEAR 
GALE FORCE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EASTERLY MORNING HOURS 
TONIGHT AND WED NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL BUILDING 9 TO 10 FT 
EACH MORNING. 

$$
AL