000
AXPZ20 KNHC 241611
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC MON AUG 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURE...  

A 1007 MB LOW PRES IS ANALYZED NEAR 13N130.5W MOVING WWD AROUND 
5 KT. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM NW ACROSS THE QUADRANT... 
WHILE SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE 
WITHIN 240 NM ACROSS THE NW SEMICIRCLE OF LOW. SATELLITE IMAGERY 
AND RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA SUGGEST A BROAD AND ELONGATED 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL 
DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM IN A FEW 
DAYS WHILE THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE W AT 5 KT. THIS AREA IS 
BEING CLOSELY MONITORED AND HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO 
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 100W MOVING W 10-15 KT. ASSOCIATED 
CONVECTION IS LARGELY CONFINED TO 120 NM TO THE E AND 240 NM TO 
THE W OF THE WAVE AXIS. 

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 117-119W EXTENDING NNE TO NEAR 
20N...WITH BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING NOTED IN THE LOW LEVELS. 
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS GENERALLY OCCURRING S OF THE MONSOON 
THROUGH AHEAD OF THIS WAVE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 08.5N93.5W TO 
07N110W...WHERE IT BREAKS...THEN RESUMES FROM NEAR 15.5N115W TO 
1007 MB LOW PRES NEAR 13N130.5W TO BEYOND 09N140W. CLUSTERS OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE NOTED FROM 03N TO 
08.5N E OF 87W...AND WITHIN 270 NM N OF TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 95W 
AND 110W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE ALSO NOTED 
FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 119W AND 130W. 

...DISCUSSION... 

AT UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS 
FROM THE NE PACIFIC SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA. 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING GENERALLY EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA ON BOTH 
SIDES OF THIS TROUGH...FROM N MEXICO WESTWARD...AND FROM THE 
TROPICAL S PACIFIC EASTWARD. THIS GENERAL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO 
PREVAIL THROUGH WED NIGHT...AND IS PRESENTLY PRODUCING VERY 
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE 
TROPICAL E PACIFIC S OF 15N. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGESTS THESE 
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 
 
A TROUGH OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST...ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE REMNANT LOW OF T.D. ELEVEN...HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER 
ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND A SURFACE LOW IS 
BEING ANALYZE NEAR 31N136.5W WITH WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING TO 
28N137W. THE LOW AND TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO DRIFT WESTWARD OVER 
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

A WEAK RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE N WATERS...MAINLY N 
OF 22N W OF 110W. LIGHT TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE SEEN 
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH 
TRADE WINDS ARE NOTED PER OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER DATA ON THE 
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE S OF 22N AND W OF 115W DUE TO 
THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE MONSOON TROUGH. A 
STRONGER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST 
WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A HIGH PRES LOCATED N OF AREA 
MOVES EASTWARD.

A NEW PULSE OF LONG PERIOD SW SOUTHERN HEMI SWELL WILL REACH THE 
EQUATOR ACROSS SW PORTIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE 
REMAINDER OF THE AREA TONIGHT...AND PROPAGATE NORTHEASTWARD 
ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL WATERS MON AND TUE AND REACHING THE 
MEXICAN AND CENTRAL AMERICAN COASTS EARLY WED. ASSOCIATED SEAS 
WILL BUILD TO 8 FT ALONG THE EQUATOR W OF 111W TONIGHT AND REACH 
AS FAR N AS 07N AND W OF 106W BY LATE TUE NIGHT. 
 
GAP WINDS...                                                     
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BLOW 
ACROSS THIS GULF TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING...AND AGAIN MON NIGHT 
INTO TUE WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 7-8 FT WITH EACH NOCTURNAL PULSE.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE COMBINATION OF A TROUGH OVER THE SW 
GULF AS WELL AS A SERIES OF TROPICAL WAVE MOVING WWD THROUGH THE 
FAR EPAC WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG NLY WINDS ACROSS 
THE GULF OF GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS THERE ARE EXPECTED TO  
INCREASE FROM 20-25 KT DURING THE DAY TO 20-30 KT TONIGHT AND 
TUE NIGHT...WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS BUILDING 9 TO 10 FT EACH EARLY 
MORNING. 

$$
STRIPLING