000 AXPZ20 KNHC 232201 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SUN AUG 23 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 93W FROM 10N TO 15N. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 91W AND 95W. THE WAVE SHOWS UP WELL AS A SURGE OF MOISTURE IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 115W FROM 10N TO 18N. CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WAVE DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. CURRENTLY...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 110W AND 118W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 09N TO 11N BETWEEN 118W AND 120W. THE WAVE IS DEPICTED IN THE TPW PRODUCT AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE NORTHWARD BULGE OF MOISTURE AS WELL AS IN THE LATEST GFS 700 MB STREAMLINES AND 850 MB VORTICITY ANALYSIS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 10N90W TO 08N100W TO 09N105W. NO ITCZ IS PRESENTLY IDENTIFIED. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE OBSERVED OVER PARTS OF PANAMA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 95W AND 108W. ...DISCUSSION... A 1009 MB AREA OF LOW PRES IS LOCATED NEAR 12N129W. THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SLOW-MOVING LOW PRES AREA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION SINCE YESTERDAY. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY ALSO REMAINS DISORGANIZED. PRESENTLY...A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM NW QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND ELSEWHERE FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 127W AND 135W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM LATER THIS WEEK WHILE THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE W-NW AND THEN NW AT 5-10 KT. THIS AREA IS BEING MONITORED AND THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK GIVES THIS LOW A LOW CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT DURING THE 48 HOURS...BUT A HIGH CHANGE OF FORMATION THROUGH 5 DAYS. A TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA AND EXTENDS FROM 30N135W TO 26N140W. THIS TROUGH WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT LOW OF T.D. ELEVEN. A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS IS STILL EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR 30N135W. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DRIFT WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A 1018 MB HIGH PRES IS LOCATED NEAR 30N125W EXTENDING A RIDGE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA N OF 18N W OF 115W. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE SEEN OVER THE N WATERS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE NOTED PER SCATTEROMETER DATA ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE DUE TO THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE LOW PRES LOCATED NEAR 12N129W. THIS WEAK HIGH PRES WILL BE REINFORCED BY A STRONGER HIGH PRES SITUATED N OF AREA. AS A RESULT...A STRONGER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE N WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LONG PERIOD SW SWELL WILL REACH THE EQUATOR TONIGHT INTO MON AND PROPAGATE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL WATERS MON AND TUE BUILDING SEAS TO 8 FT S OF THE EQUATOR AND W OF A LINE FROM 00N107W TO 03.4S100W BY TUE. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING...AND AGAIN MON NIGHT INTO TUE WITH SEAS OF 7-8 FT. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE COMBINATION OF A TROUGH OVER THE SW GULF AS WELL AS A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC WILL HELP FOR WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING...AND TO 25-30 KT MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD UP TO 10 FT WITH THIS GAP WIND EVENT BY EARLY TUE MORNING. $$ GR