000 AXPZ20 KNHC 230227 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SUN AUG 23 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0200 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 99W FROM 06N TO 12N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED AHEAD OF WAVE AXIS FROM 09N TO 11N BETWEEN 100W AND 103W. THE WAVE SHOWS UP WELL AS A SURGE OF MOISTURE IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT. A TROPICAL WAVE IS FROM 17N111W TO 10N112W. CONVECTION HAS FLARED UP MAINLY NEAR THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE AXIS. SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWS SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 110W AND 115W. THE WAVE IS DEPICTED IN THE TPW PRODUCT AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE NORTHWARD BULGE OF MOISTURE AS WELL AS IN THE LATEST GFS 700 MB STREAMLINES AND 850 MB VORTICITY ANALYSIS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 118W FROM 09N TO 14N WITH A 1010 MB LOW PRES ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 10N118W. THIS BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. CURRENTLY...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 09N TO 13N BETWEEN 118W AND 120W...AND FROM 05N TO 13N BETWEEN 120W AND 124W. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHILE IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD ABOUT 10 KT. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AS REFLECTED ON THE TPW PRODUCT. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 08N98W. NO ITCZ IS PRESENTLY IDENTIFIED. MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOWS AND TROPICAL WAVES MENTIONED ABOVE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 90W AND 92W...AND FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 130W AND 136W. ...DISCUSSION... A 1009 MB AREA OF LOW PRES IS LOCATED NEAR 12N129W. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW REMAINS LIMITED. CURRENTLY...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG IS WITHIN 120 NM N QUADRANT OF LOW CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD AT 5-10 KT. THIS AREA IS BEING MONITORED AND THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK GIVES THIS LOW A LOW CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT DURING THE 48 HOURS. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRES...WITH A CENTRAL PRES OF 1011MB IS ANALYZED ON THE 0000 UTC SURFACE MAP NEAR 11N138W. MOST OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS MOVED WESTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE LOW CENTER. NOW...A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF LOW CENTER FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 139W AND 141W. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE JUST WEST OF AREA IN ABOUT 12-24 HOURS. THE REMNANT LOW OF T.D. ELEVEN HAS FINALLY DISSIPATED AND NOW A SURFACE TROUGH PERSISTS EXTENDING FROM 30N133W TO 28N140W. A RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWS THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DRIFT WESTWARD AS A RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE N WATERS BEGINNING SUN NIGHT. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE AREA N OF 17N W OF 115W WITH A WEAK 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 27N127W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA EXTENDING FROM A LOW PRES LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA MAINLY N OF 27N. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE SEEN OVER THE N WATERS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE NOTED PER SCATTEROMETER DATA ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE DUE TO THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE LOWS MENTIONED ABOVE ACROSS THE TROPICS. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO A POSITION NEAR 30N128W IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. LONG PERIOD SW SWELL WILL REACH THE EQUATOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON AND PROPAGATE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL WATERS MON AND TUE BUILDING SEAS TO 8 FT S OF THE EQUATOR AND W OF 105W BY TUE. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...EXPECT MAINLY FRESH GAP WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING WITH SEAS OF 7-8 FT. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE COMBINATION OF A TROUGH OVER THE SW GULF AS WELL AS A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC WILL HELP FOR WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING...AND TO 25-30 KT MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD UP TO 10 FT WITH THIS GAP WIND EVENT BY EARLY TUE MORNING. $$ GR