000 AXPZ20 KNHC 221505 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SAT AUG 22 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... .TROPICAL WAVE FROM 7N TO 14N ALONG 96W. FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 93W AND 100W SCATTERED MODERATE STRONG CONVECTION. .TROPICAL WAVE FROM 8N TO 16N ALONG 110W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 107W-112W. .TROPICAL WAVE FROM 10N TO 17N ALONG 117W SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 113W-120W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH FROM 9N78W TO 9N85W TO 1009 MB LOW AT 8N95W TO 12N103W. FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 93W-100W SCATTERED MODERATE STRONG CONVECTION. ...DISCUSSION... A 1009 MB AREA OF LOW PRES IS LOCATED NEAR 12N127W. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW REMAINS LIMITED. CURRENTLY...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N TO 13N BETWEEN 125W AND 132W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHILE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 KT. THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK GIVES THIS LOW A LOW CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE AREA N OF 17N W OF 115W WITH A WEAK 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 27N128W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IS PRODUCING MAINLY NW MODERATE BREEZE OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG BREEZE ARE BLOWING THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. SEAS ARE BUILDING TO 6-7 FEET. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH LATER TODAY. $$ DGS