000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210926
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC FRI AUG 21 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0800 UTC.               

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 107W FROM 05N TO 13N. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 02N TO 08N E OF 82W TO 
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THIS WAVE SHOWS UP VERY WELL ON THE TPW 
PRODUCT WHERE A HIGH AMPLITUDE NORTHWARD BULGE OF MOISTURE IS 
OBSERVED. ALSO...THE WAVE IS DEPICTED IN THE LATEST GFS 700 MB 
STREAMLINE AND 850 MB VORTICITY ANALYSIS.  

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ALONG 125W FROM 10N TO 17N.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 
120W AND 125W. THE WAVE REMAINS BROADLY APPARENT ON THE LATEST 
GFS 700 MB STREAMLINE AND 850 MB VORTICITY ANALYSIS. THE TPW 
IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE SWATH OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN 
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

CURRENTLY THERE IS NOT A WELL DEFINED MONSOON TROUGH OR ITCZ. 
MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL 
WAVES MENTIONED ABOVE. 

A TROUGH IS ANALYZED ON THE 0600 UTC MAP FROM 05N77W TO 03N81W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 08N 
E OF 82W TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.   
 
...DISCUSSION... 

THE REMNANT LOW OF T.D. ELEVEN PERSISTS NEAR 31N132W WITH A 
CENTRAL PRES OF 1012 MB. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW 
CENTER TO NEAR 25N135W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OR WINDS ARE 
NOTED WITH THIS FEATURE AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW 8 FT. THE 
LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND NOT MOVE MUCH THROUGH THE 
NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. 

FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG GAP WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO 
FRI ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 6-7 FT 
DOWNSTREAM FROM GULF TO NEAR 90W.   
 
$$ 
FORMOSA