000
AXPZ20 KNHC 192123
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC WED AUG 19 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.               

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ALONG 102W FROM 04N-14W...MOVING W NEAR 
15 KT. THE WAVE SHOWS UP PRETTY WELL ON THE TPW ANIMATION AND 
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. ALSO...THE WAVE IS DEPICTED IN THE 
LATEST GFS 700 MB STREAMLINE AND 850 MB VORTICITY ANALYSIS. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 06N 
TO 12N BETWEEN 100W AND 103W. 

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ALONG 118W FROM 10N TO 16N MOVING W AT 
15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS BROADLY APPARENT ON THE LATEST GFS 700 
MB STREAMLINE AND 850 MB VORTICITY ANALYSIS. THE TPW IMAGERY 
SHOWS A LARGE SWATH OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN ASSOCIATION 
WITH THIS SYSTEM. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
CAN BE FOUND FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 115W AND 120W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 08N83W TO 09N90W... 
AND FROM 12N136W TO BEYOND 12N140W. NO ITCZ AXIS IS PRESENTLY 
IDENTIFIED. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 133W AND 136W.

...DISCUSSION... 

THE REMNANT LOW OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E IS 
ANALYZED NEAR 28N132W...WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1011 MB. A 
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM FROM 30N130W TO THE LOW CENTER TO 25N133W. 
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE LOW AND TROUGH. AN 
ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED SEAS OF 7-8 FT IN MIXED NE AND SE SWELL 
N OF 27N BETWEEN 128W AND 132W. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 5-7 FT BY 
LATE TONIGHT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NW REACHING A POSITION 
NEAR 30N133W IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...THEN WILL REMAINS NEARLY 
STATIONARY THROUGH FRI.
 
A WEAK NEARLY STATIONARY 1017 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 26N123W 
WITH A RIDGE SE TO 15N108W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE 
RIDGE AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE NLY 
FLOW OF 15-20 KT ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA 
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SEAS OF 5-7 FT. SEAS WILL REMAIN 
4-6 FT IN OFFSHORE WATERS. OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED 
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE HIGH PRES REMAINS NEARLY 
STATIONARY.
                                    
THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE E OF 110W WITH A 
TROPICAL WAVE-LIKE NEAR 92W/93W FROM 05N TO 12N. A BULGE OF 
MOISTURE IN OBSERVED ON THE TPW PRODUCT. 

FRESH GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE THROUGH THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE 
BENEFIT OF THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW WITH SEAS OF 5-6 FT 
DOWNSTREAM FROM GULF TO NEAR 90W. THESE SEAS COULD BUILD TO 6-7 
FT LATE THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI MORNING.
 
$$ 
GR